Jordan Bardella's lead in trader consensus for the 2027 French presidential election stems from National Rally's strong polling amid ongoing political gridlock following the 2024 snap legislative vote, which produced a hung parliament and successive government collapses under Barnier and now Bayrou. Recent surveys, like Ifop's, place Bardella at 30-35% in a first-round scenario, ahead of Édouard Philippe's 18-22% as a centrist-right alternative, with Marine Le Pen diminished by her embezzlement conviction and appeal. The race stays tight due to a fragmented field across left, center, and right blocs, with over two years until the vote allowing shifts from budget resolutions, Macron endorsements, or scandals to widen gaps.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於喬丹·巴爾德拉 27%
埃杜阿爾·菲利普 18%
讓-呂克·梅朗雄 10%
瑪琳·勒龐 9%
$16,935,810 交易量
$16,935,810 交易量

喬丹·巴爾德拉
27%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普
18%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄
10%

瑪琳·勒龐
9%

多米尼克·德維爾潘
7%

布魯諾·赫泰約
4%

拉斐爾·格呂克斯曼
4%

莎拉·克納福
4%

弗朗索瓦·奧朗德
3%

讓·卡斯泰
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努
2%

大衛·利斯納爾
2%

熱拉爾·達爾馬寧
1%

胡安·布蘭科
1%

貝爾納·卡澤納夫
1%

埃里克·澤穆爾
1%

瑪琳·通德列
1%

弗朗索瓦·魯芬
1%

洛朗·瓦奎茲
<1%

澤維耶·貝特朗
<1%

奧利維耶·福爾
<1%

弗朗索瓦·阿斯利諾
<1%

伊莉莎白·博爾內
<1%

曼努埃爾·邦帕爾
<1%

塞格琳·羅亞爾
<1%

弗朗索瓦·貝魯
<1%

法比恩·魯塞爾
<1%

尼古拉·杜邦-艾尼昂
<1%

瓦萊麗·佩克雷斯
<1%

卡羅爾·德爾加
<1%

克萊芙蒂娜·奧坦
<1%

米歇爾·巴尼耶
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

馬蒂爾德·帕諾
<1%

克蕾芙絲·蓋特
<1%
喬丹·巴爾德拉 27%
埃杜阿爾·菲利普 18%
讓-呂克·梅朗雄 10%
瑪琳·勒龐 9%
$16,935,810 交易量
$16,935,810 交易量

喬丹·巴爾德拉
27%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普
18%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄
10%

瑪琳·勒龐
9%

多米尼克·德維爾潘
7%

布魯諾·赫泰約
4%

拉斐爾·格呂克斯曼
4%

莎拉·克納福
4%

弗朗索瓦·奧朗德
3%

讓·卡斯泰
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努
2%

大衛·利斯納爾
2%

熱拉爾·達爾馬寧
1%

胡安·布蘭科
1%

貝爾納·卡澤納夫
1%

埃里克·澤穆爾
1%

瑪琳·通德列
1%

弗朗索瓦·魯芬
1%

洛朗·瓦奎茲
<1%

澤維耶·貝特朗
<1%

奧利維耶·福爾
<1%

弗朗索瓦·阿斯利諾
<1%

伊莉莎白·博爾內
<1%

曼努埃爾·邦帕爾
<1%

塞格琳·羅亞爾
<1%

弗朗索瓦·貝魯
<1%

法比恩·魯塞爾
<1%

尼古拉·杜邦-艾尼昂
<1%

瓦萊麗·佩克雷斯
<1%

卡羅爾·德爾加
<1%

克萊芙蒂娜·奧坦
<1%

米歇爾·巴尼耶
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

馬蒂爾德·帕諾
<1%

克蕾芙絲·蓋特
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市場開放時間: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jordan Bardella's lead in trader consensus for the 2027 French presidential election stems from National Rally's strong polling amid ongoing political gridlock following the 2024 snap legislative vote, which produced a hung parliament and successive government collapses under Barnier and now Bayrou. Recent surveys, like Ifop's, place Bardella at 30-35% in a first-round scenario, ahead of Édouard Philippe's 18-22% as a centrist-right alternative, with Marine Le Pen diminished by her embezzlement conviction and appeal. The race stays tight due to a fragmented field across left, center, and right blocs, with over two years until the vote allowing shifts from budget resolutions, Macron endorsements, or scandals to widen gaps.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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