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地緣政治·以色列

納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？

Market icon
地緣政治·以色列

納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？

$410,341 交易量

2026-04-30
Polymarket

$410,341 交易量

Polymarket

2026年4月30日

$5,991 交易量

20%

2026年6月30日

$1,544 交易量

46%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Naim Qassem has held the position of Hezbollah secretary-general since October 2024, succeeding slain leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine amid the group's depleted command structure from Israeli airstrikes. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on April 2, 2026, that Qassem faces an "extraordinarily heavy price" for Hezbollah attacks during Jewish holidays, explicitly designating him a target and heightening assassination risks. Qassem rejected ceasefire talks and disarmament on March 25, vowing continued resistance to truce violations. No internal challenges or Iranian-backed leadership shifts have materialized recently, despite prior December 2025 reports of Tehran's dissatisfaction. Traders weigh escalating cross-border clashes, potential Israeli military action, and fragile Lebanon ceasefire diplomacy as key factors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$410,341
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Naim Qassem has held the position of Hezbollah secretary-general since October 2024, succeeding slain leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine amid the group's depleted command structure from Israeli airstrikes. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on April 2, 2026, that Qassem faces an "extraordinarily heavy price" for Hezbollah attacks during Jewish holidays, explicitly designating him a target and heightening assassination risks. Qassem rejected ceasefire talks and disarmament on March 25, vowing continued resistance to truce violations. No internal challenges or Iranian-backed leadership shifts have materialized recently, despite prior December 2025 reports of Tehran's dissatisfaction. Traders weigh escalating cross-border clashes, potential Israeli military action, and fragile Lebanon ceasefire diplomacy as key factors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$410,341
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年6月30日" at 46%, followed by "2026年4月30日" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？" has generated $410.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？" is "2026年6月30日" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2026年4月30日" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "納伊姆·卡西姆（ Naim Qassem ）擔任真主黨祕書長的時候... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.