Market icon
經濟艙·NFP

3月失業率

Market icon
經濟艙·NFP

3月失業率

4月 3

4月 3

4.4% 40%

4.3% 25%

4.5% 24%

4.6% 7.2%

Polymarket

$170,948 交易量

4.4% 40%

4.3% 25%

4.5% 24%

4.6% 7.2%

Polymarket

$170,948 交易量

≤3.9%

$6,636 交易量

<1%

4.0%

$108,388 交易量

<1%

4.1%

$5,107 交易量

1%

4.2%

$11,067 交易量

3%

4.3%

$4,960 交易量

25%

4.4%

$5,638 交易量

40%

4.5%

$6,081 交易量

24%

4.6%

$9,259 交易量

7%

大於或等於4.7%

$13,814 交易量

2%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability on the March 2026 unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, matching February's print and aligning with economist forecasts from FactSet and Goldman Sachs, amid stabilizing labor market signals. February's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed an unexpected payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment edging up to 4.4% from 4.3%, but recent data points to resilience: March ADP private payrolls rose 62,000 versus consensus for slower growth, initial jobless claims fell to near two-year lows last week, and the Chicago Fed's real-time tracker estimates 4.49%. Close contests at 4.5% (24%) and 4.3% (22%) reflect risks from hiring slowdowns versus low layoff activity, with today's BLS release at 8:30 AM ET as the key catalyst ahead of the FOMC's rate path reassessment.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$170,948
結束日期
2026-04-03
市場開放時間
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability on the March 2026 unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, matching February's print and aligning with economist forecasts from FactSet and Goldman Sachs, amid stabilizing labor market signals. February's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed an unexpected payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment edging up to 4.4% from 4.3%, but recent data points to resilience: March ADP private payrolls rose 62,000 versus consensus for slower growth, initial jobless claims fell to near two-year lows last week, and the Chicago Fed's real-time tracker estimates 4.49%. Close contests at 4.5% (24%) and 4.3% (22%) reflect risks from hiring slowdowns versus low layoff activity, with today's BLS release at 8:30 AM ET as the key catalyst ahead of the FOMC's rate path reassessment.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$170,948
結束日期
2026-04-03
市場開放時間
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"3月失業率" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.4%" at 40%, followed by "4.3%" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "3月失業率" has generated $170.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "3月失業率," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "3月失業率" is "4.4%" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.3%" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "3月失業率" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.