氣候與科學·SpaceX

2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？

氣候與科學·SpaceX

2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？

Dec 31

Dec 31

5-6 37%

少於5次 37%

7-8 14%

9-10 9.3%

$340,227 交易量

$340,227 交易量

Dec 31, 2026

少於5次

$70,429 交易量

37%

5-6

$80,522 交易量

37%

7-8

$150,850 交易量

14%

9-10

$0 交易量

9%

11-12

$2,942 交易量

5%

13-14

$3,647 交易量

2%

15-16

$23,563 交易量

1%

>16

$8,275 交易量

3%

5-6 37%

少於5次 37%

7-8 14%

9-10 9.3%

$340,227 交易量

$340,227 交易量

Dec 31, 2026

少於5次

$70,429 交易量

37%

5-6

$80,522 交易量

37%

7-8

$150,850 交易量

14%

9-10

$0 交易量

9%

11-12

$2,942 交易量

5%

13-14

$3,647 交易量

2%

15-16

$23,563 交易量

1%

>16

$8,275 交易量

3%

Polymarket traders are closely split on Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 5-6 at 37% implied probability edging out under 5 at 36.5%, reflecting uncertainty over SpaceX's ramp to higher launch cadence amid repeated delays for the year's first flight. Flight 12—debuting the more powerful V3 Starship with upgraded Raptor Vacuum engines on Booster 19 and Ship 39—has slipped to early April after March setbacks, leaving nine months for the full tally following 11 prior tests through 2025, most achieving spaceflight milestones like engine relights and simulator deploys. Pad 2 activation, cryogenic tests, and FAA approvals for expanded flight paths bolster optimism for reusability gains supporting Starlink and Artemis, but historical slips and production scaling risks keep higher bins like 7+ under 30% consensus, hinging on Flight 12 success and rapid iterations.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 29, 2026, 10:50 AM UTC

Polymarket traders are closely split on Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 5-6 at 37% implied probability edging out under 5 at 36.5%, reflecting uncertainty over SpaceX's ramp to higher launch cadence amid repeated delays for the year's first flight. Flight 12—debuting the more powerful V3 Starship with upgraded Raptor Vacuum engines on Booster 19 and Ship 39—has slipped to early April after March setbacks, leaving nine months for the full tally following 11 prior tests through 2025, most achieving spaceflight milestones like engine relights and simulator deploys. Pad 2 activation, cryogenic tests, and FAA approvals for expanded flight paths bolster optimism for reusability gains supporting Starlink and Artemis, but historical slips and production scaling risks keep higher bins like 7+ under 30% consensus, hinging on Flight 12 success and rapid iterations.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 29, 2026, 10:50 AM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "少於5次" at 37%, followed by "5-6" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？" has generated $340.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？" is "少於5次" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5-6" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $340.2K traded on “2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 37¢ for "少於5次" in the "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 37% chance that "少於5次" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 37¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 63¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？" market has an active community of 13 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年，有多少艘SpaceX星艦發射到太空？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.