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科技·Claude 5

Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在FrontierMath Benchmark上得分？

Market icon
科技·Claude 5

Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在FrontierMath Benchmark上得分？

$55,137 交易量

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$55,137 交易量

Polymarket

50%以上

$8,103 交易量

74%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, scores 0% on the FrontierMath benchmark—a set of 100 competition-level math problems designed to probe frontier artificial intelligence capabilities—trailing OpenAI's o1-preview at 2.4%. This underwhelming result tempers trader consensus on Claude achieving a meaningful score threshold by the June 30 deadline, despite Anthropic's emphasis on safety-aligned scaling and internal progress toward advanced reasoning. Competitive pressures from o1's math benchmark dominance highlight gaps in Claude's symbolic reasoning, with no new model announcements or capability demos in the past week. Traders eye last-minute evaluations, but historical AI math progress suggests low odds of a breakthrough absent fresh releases.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$55,137
結束日期
Jun 30, 2026
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

已提議結果: 是

無爭議

最終結果: 是

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, scores 0% on the FrontierMath benchmark—a set of 100 competition-level math problems designed to probe frontier artificial intelligence capabilities—trailing OpenAI's o1-preview at 2.4%. This underwhelming result tempers trader consensus on Claude achieving a meaningful score threshold by the June 30 deadline, despite Anthropic's emphasis on safety-aligned scaling and internal progress toward advanced reasoning. Competitive pressures from o1's math benchmark dominance highlight gaps in Claude's symbolic reasoning, with no new model announcements or capability demos in the past week. Traders eye last-minute evaluations, but historical AI math progress suggests low odds of a breakthrough absent fresh releases.

Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, scores 0% on the FrontierMath benchmark—a set of 100 competition-level math problems designed to probe frontier artificial intelligence capabilities—trailing OpenAI's o1-preview at 2.4%. This underwhelming result tempers trader consensus on Claude achieving a meaningful score threshold by the June 30 deadline, despite Anthropic's emphasis on safety-aligned scaling and internal progress toward advanced reasoning. Competitive pressures from o1's math benchmark dominance highlight gaps in Claude's symbolic reasoning, with no new model announcements or capability demos in the past week. Traders eye last-minute evaluations, but historical AI math progress suggests low odds of a breakthrough absent fresh releases.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在FrontierMath Benchmark上得分？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25%以上" at 100%, followed by "30%+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在FrontierMath Benchmark上得分？" has generated $55.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

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The current frontrunner for "Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在FrontierMath Benchmark上得分？" is "25%以上" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30%+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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