2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？

Name: 2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？
Start: 2025-11-05T17:57:04.078Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

政治·特朗普

2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？

Dec 31

$27,365 交易量

Dec 31, 2026

40%

$14,848 交易量

96%

35%

$12,517 交易量

28%

30%

$0 交易量

11%

25%

$0 交易量

20%

$0 交易量

$27,365 交易量

40%

$14,848 交易量

96%

35%

$12,517 交易量

28%

30%

$0 交易量

11%

25%

$0 交易量

20%

$0 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

Post-election polls place President-elect Trump's approval rating near 47% on averages like RealClearPolitics, up from pre-vote lows, anchoring trader consensus that his 2026 trough likely stays above 40%. This reflects honeymoon momentum from his mandate, strong stock market gains, and GOP congressional control aiding policy wins on taxes and borders. Recent cabinet nominations, including figures like RFK Jr. for HHS, have drawn scrutiny but face favorable Senate math. Risks include economic headwinds like persistent inflation or trade tensions, plus 2026 midterms where historical second-term dips average 10 points. Watch January inauguration, confirmation votes, and Q1 GDP data for shifts.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 22, 2026, 6:57 AM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40%" at 96%, followed by "35%" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？" has generated $27.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？" is "40%" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35%" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $27.4K traded on “2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 96¢ for "40%" in the "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 96% chance that "40%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 96¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 4¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？" market has an active community of 59 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？

2026年，特朗普的支持率會有多低？

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