Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.3% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in late January and mid-March that held the fed funds target range at 3½–3¾ percent amid resilient economic conditions. Recent March CPI data showed a hotter-than-expected 3.3% year-over-year rise—up from February's 2.4%—coupled with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, reinforcing sticky inflation and a solid labor market that tempers rate-cut expectations. Chair Powell's recent wait-and-see comments further anchor this positioning, with the April 28–29 meeting as the key catalyst; a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like retail sales or sentiment could marginally challenge the near-certainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоРішення ФРС (січень-квітень)
Рішення ФРС (січень-квітень)
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 99.3%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження <1%
Інше <1%
$658,079 Обс.
$658,079 Обс.
Apr 29, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
99%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
1%
Інше
<1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 99.3%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження <1%
Інше <1%
$658,079 Обс.
$658,079 Обс.
Apr 29, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$100,632 Обс.
99%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$239,119 Обс.
1%
Інше
$278,341 Обс.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.3% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in late January and mid-March that held the fed funds target range at 3½–3¾ percent amid resilient economic conditions. Recent March CPI data showed a hotter-than-expected 3.3% year-over-year rise—up from February's 2.4%—coupled with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, reinforcing sticky inflation and a solid labor market that tempers rate-cut expectations. Chair Powell's recent wait-and-see comments further anchor this positioning, with the April 28–29 meeting as the key catalyst; a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like retail sales or sentiment could marginally challenge the near-certainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Обсяг
$658,079Дата завершення
Apr 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.3% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in late January and mid-March that held the fed funds target range at 3½–3¾ percent amid resilient economic conditions. Recent March CPI data showed a hotter-than-expected 3.3% year-over-year rise—up from February's 2.4%—coupled with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, reinforcing sticky inflation and a solid labor market that tempers rate-cut expectations. Chair Powell's recent wait-and-see comments further anchor this positioning, with the April 28–29 meeting as the key catalyst; a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like retail sales or sentiment could marginally challenge the near-certainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$658,079Дата завершення
Apr 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 99.3% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in late January and mid-March that held the fed funds target range at 3½–3¾ percent amid resilient economic conditions. Recent March CPI data showed a hotter-than-expected 3.3% year-over-year rise—up from February's 2.4%—coupled with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, reinforcing sticky inflation and a solid labor market that tempers rate-cut expectations. Chair Powell's recent wait-and-see comments further anchor this positioning, with the April 28–29 meeting as the key catalyst; a surprise downturn in pre-meeting data like retail sales or sentiment could marginally challenge the near-certainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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