Incumbent Darrell Issa's March retirement opened California's newly redrawn CA-48 House seat, shifting leftward under mid-decade redistricting and earning Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others as of mid-April. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 85%, reflecting the district's 2024 presidential margin (Harris +3.2 points), robust Democratic fundraising led by challengers like Brandon Riker ($1.9M raised) and Marni von Wilpert ($1M), and midterm dynamics favoring the out-party. A mid-April SurveyUSA primary poll showed GOP Supervisor Jim Desmond leading a fragmented Democratic field at 25%, but high undecideds and top-two primary rules position a consolidated Democrat against a Republican in November, tilting general odds heavily blue despite infighting exposed post-Issa exit. June 2 primary looms as next catalyst.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,710 Обс.
86%
Republican Party
$3,324 Обс.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Darrell Issa's March retirement opened California's newly redrawn CA-48 House seat, shifting leftward under mid-decade redistricting and earning Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others as of mid-April. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 85%, reflecting the district's 2024 presidential margin (Harris +3.2 points), robust Democratic fundraising led by challengers like Brandon Riker ($1.9M raised) and Marni von Wilpert ($1M), and midterm dynamics favoring the out-party. A mid-April SurveyUSA primary poll showed GOP Supervisor Jim Desmond leading a fragmented Democratic field at 25%, but high undecideds and top-two primary rules position a consolidated Democrat against a Republican in November, tilting general odds heavily blue despite infighting exposed post-Issa exit. June 2 primary looms as next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$9,034Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Darrell Issa's March retirement opened California's newly redrawn CA-48 House seat, shifting leftward under mid-decade redistricting and earning Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others as of mid-April. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 85%, reflecting the district's 2024 presidential margin (Harris +3.2 points), robust Democratic fundraising led by challengers like Brandon Riker ($1.9M raised) and Marni von Wilpert ($1M), and midterm dynamics favoring the out-party. A mid-April SurveyUSA primary poll showed GOP Supervisor Jim Desmond leading a fragmented Democratic field at 25%, but high undecideds and top-two primary rules position a consolidated Democrat against a Republican in November, tilting general odds heavily blue despite infighting exposed post-Issa exit. June 2 primary looms as next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$9,034Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Darrell Issa's March retirement opened California's newly redrawn CA-48 House seat, shifting leftward under mid-decade redistricting and earning Lean Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others as of mid-April. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 85%, reflecting the district's 2024 presidential margin (Harris +3.2 points), robust Democratic fundraising led by challengers like Brandon Riker ($1.9M raised) and Marni von Wilpert ($1M), and midterm dynamics favoring the out-party. A mid-April SurveyUSA primary poll showed GOP Supervisor Jim Desmond leading a fragmented Democratic field at 25%, but high undecideds and top-two primary rules position a consolidated Democrat against a Republican in November, tilting general odds heavily blue despite infighting exposed post-Issa exit. June 2 primary looms as next catalyst.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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