California’s 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in recent voting patterns and voter registration data that favor the party by wide margins. The open seat, created by Rep. Eric Swalwell’s resignation, has drawn multiple Democratic candidates including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who holds the California Democratic Party endorsement, along with other contenders advancing through the June primary process. Republican candidates face structural barriers in this D+19 environment, limiting their path to victory. Traders assign the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability because the combination of district demographics, party infrastructure, and candidate field has historically produced consistent Democratic wins. A late scandal, unusually high Republican turnout, or shifts in primary outcomes could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events in the current cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$26,525 Обс.
$26,525 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$26,525 Обс.
$26,525 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,560 Обс.
94%
Republican Party
$17,966 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in recent voting patterns and voter registration data that favor the party by wide margins. The open seat, created by Rep. Eric Swalwell’s resignation, has drawn multiple Democratic candidates including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who holds the California Democratic Party endorsement, along with other contenders advancing through the June primary process. Republican candidates face structural barriers in this D+19 environment, limiting their path to victory. Traders assign the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability because the combination of district demographics, party infrastructure, and candidate field has historically produced consistent Democratic wins. A late scandal, unusually high Republican turnout, or shifts in primary outcomes could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,525Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in recent voting patterns and voter registration data that favor the party by wide margins. The open seat, created by Rep. Eric Swalwell’s resignation, has drawn multiple Democratic candidates including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who holds the California Democratic Party endorsement, along with other contenders advancing through the June primary process. Republican candidates face structural barriers in this D+19 environment, limiting their path to victory. Traders assign the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability because the combination of district demographics, party infrastructure, and candidate field has historically produced consistent Democratic wins. A late scandal, unusually high Republican turnout, or shifts in primary outcomes could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$26,525Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in recent voting patterns and voter registration data that favor the party by wide margins. The open seat, created by Rep. Eric Swalwell’s resignation, has drawn multiple Democratic candidates including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who holds the California Democratic Party endorsement, along with other contenders advancing through the June primary process. Republican candidates face structural barriers in this D+19 environment, limiting their path to victory. Traders assign the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability because the combination of district demographics, party infrastructure, and candidate field has historically produced consistent Democratic wins. A late scandal, unusually high Republican turnout, or shifts in primary outcomes could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events in the current cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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