Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025-2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or sealing most centrifuges and rendering active uranium enrichment inoperable. The IAEA has lacked access to core sites since mid-2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium unverified and largely buried underground. Satellite imagery shows reconstruction and vehicle activity at secondary locations like Minzadehei and Pickaxe Mountain through early October 2026, yet US intelligence and independent assessments place any potential breakout timeline at around one year or longer if Tehran commits to weaponization. IAEA referral to the UN Security Council in September underscores ongoing non-compliance, reinforcing trader views that a completed nuclear device before 2027 faces substantial technical and diplomatic barriers. Late surges in covert rebuilding, NPT withdrawal, or sudden policy shifts could still alter trajectories.