Recent military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, leaving substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles buried in tunnels with restricted IAEA access. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including a June 2026 memorandum on down-blending material under supervision, combined with reimposed sanctions and parliamentary debates over NPT withdrawal, reinforce trader views that weaponization thresholds remain distant before 2027. Satellite monitoring shows defensive reinforcements but limited operational activity at key complexes. High "No" odds reflect this constrained capacity, though rapid covert reconstitution of stockpiles or collapse of diplomatic channels could still shift timelines.