U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging infrastructure and burying much of its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile while halting IAEA inspections. These operations, followed by a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it would not develop nuclear weapons, have extended Iran's estimated breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Officials from both countries report that Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Traders reflect this degraded capacity and lack of recent activity through overwhelming consensus on the "No" outcome for an Iranian nuclear weapon by the end of 2026.