US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated breakout timeline for weapons-grade material and assembly to nine-to-twelve months according to US intelligence assessments. Iran has not resumed large-scale uranium enrichment or reconstruction efforts at struck facilities, with stockpiles remaining inaccessible and IAEA inspectors reporting limited access. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations toward a nuclear agreement, including recent reports of progress on technical talks and ceasefire terms, reinforce trader views that near-term weaponization faces substantial barriers from sustained military degradation, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure through the end of 2026.