US intelligence and IAEA assessments as of early April 2026 confirm Iran has amassed enough 60% enriched uranium for potential weapons-grade material in 1-3 months but shows no structured weaponization efforts or diversion toward a testable nuclear device, justifying traders' 90.5% consensus against a nuke before 2027. Recent US-Israel airstrikes in February-March damaged facilities yet left stockpiles largely intact, per IAEA reports, while ongoing US-Iran talks—where Tehran offers partial enrichment suspension and stockpile downblending but rejects full curbs or exports—signal diplomatic de-escalation amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms and technical hurdles like warhead design and delivery systems add high barriers, though a sprint decision or talks collapse could shift odds before year-end deadlines.