Recent U.S. economic data have kept Federal Reserve rate-path probabilities tightly contested for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, while July CPI registered 3.4 percent year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds that favor holding the 3.50–3.75 percent target range across all three gatherings at 25.5 percent. Yet hawkish June projections, with nine officials expecting at least one hike by year-end, combined with resilient labor conditions and elevated inflation readings, underpin meaningful pricing for single or multiple 25-basis-point increases. Traders are closely watching the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC decision for signals on whether supply-driven price pressures or policy caution under Chair Warsh will shift the balance toward tightening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 14%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.9%
$11,703 ปริมาณ
$11,703 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
12%
Other
8%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 14%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.9%
$11,703 ปริมาณ
$11,703 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 ปริมาณ
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$489 ปริมาณ
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 ปริมาณ
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 ปริมาณ
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 ปริมาณ
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,180 ปริมาณ
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 ปริมาณ
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 ปริมาณ
12%
Other
$249 ปริมาณ
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. economic data have kept Federal Reserve rate-path probabilities tightly contested for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, while July CPI registered 3.4 percent year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds that favor holding the 3.50–3.75 percent target range across all three gatherings at 25.5 percent. Yet hawkish June projections, with nine officials expecting at least one hike by year-end, combined with resilient labor conditions and elevated inflation readings, underpin meaningful pricing for single or multiple 25-basis-point increases. Traders are closely watching the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC decision for signals on whether supply-driven price pressures or policy caution under Chair Warsh will shift the balance toward tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,703วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. economic data have kept Federal Reserve rate-path probabilities tightly contested for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, while July CPI registered 3.4 percent year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds that favor holding the 3.50–3.75 percent target range across all three gatherings at 25.5 percent. Yet hawkish June projections, with nine officials expecting at least one hike by year-end, combined with resilient labor conditions and elevated inflation readings, underpin meaningful pricing for single or multiple 25-basis-point increases. Traders are closely watching the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC decision for signals on whether supply-driven price pressures or policy caution under Chair Warsh will shift the balance toward tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,703วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data have kept Federal Reserve rate-path probabilities tightly contested for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, while July CPI registered 3.4 percent year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds that favor holding the 3.50–3.75 percent target range across all three gatherings at 25.5 percent. Yet hawkish June projections, with nine officials expecting at least one hike by year-end, combined with resilient labor conditions and elevated inflation readings, underpin meaningful pricing for single or multiple 25-basis-point increases. Traders are closely watching the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC decision for signals on whether supply-driven price pressures or policy caution under Chair Warsh will shift the balance toward tightening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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