Market-implied odds strongly favor the Hike–Pause–Hike sequence at 95.9 percent for Federal Reserve decisions through December 2026, driven by persistent core inflation above the 2 percent target in recent CPI releases and a resilient labor market that has kept unemployment near historic lows. Policymakers’ data-dependent stance, reinforced by forward guidance and Treasury yield curves, has led traders to price in measured tightening steps amid stable growth and limited progress on disinflation. This positioning aligns with the Fed’s historical response to similar conditions. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in November employment data or renewed supply-chain disruptions could still alter the December outcome and challenge the current consensus.