Recent inflation data showing firmer-than-expected price pressures, with core PCE remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, represent the main driver behind the 57.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Stronger consumer and producer price readings have prompted major banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to shift forecasts toward hikes in September and December, elevating the federal funds rate path and pushing Treasury yields higher. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus among traders committing capital, while the 39.5% probability of no change accounts for potential moderation in subsequent releases. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and upcoming PCE data will serve as key near-term catalysts influencing December pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 2.2%
$742,678 ปริมาณ
$742,678 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
57%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 2.2%
$742,678 ปริมาณ
$742,678 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$117,080 ปริมาณ
1%
25 bps decrease
$165,318 ปริมาณ
3%
No change
$147,598 ปริมาณ
40%
25 bps increase
$198,792 ปริมาณ
57%
50+ bps increase
$114,863 ปริมาณ
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data showing firmer-than-expected price pressures, with core PCE remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, represent the main driver behind the 57.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Stronger consumer and producer price readings have prompted major banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to shift forecasts toward hikes in September and December, elevating the federal funds rate path and pushing Treasury yields higher. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus among traders committing capital, while the 39.5% probability of no change accounts for potential moderation in subsequent releases. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and upcoming PCE data will serve as key near-term catalysts influencing December pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$742,678วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data showing firmer-than-expected price pressures, with core PCE remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, represent the main driver behind the 57.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Stronger consumer and producer price readings have prompted major banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to shift forecasts toward hikes in September and December, elevating the federal funds rate path and pushing Treasury yields higher. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus among traders committing capital, while the 39.5% probability of no change accounts for potential moderation in subsequent releases. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and upcoming PCE data will serve as key near-term catalysts influencing December pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$742,678วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data showing firmer-than-expected price pressures, with core PCE remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, represent the main driver behind the 57.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Stronger consumer and producer price readings have prompted major banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to shift forecasts toward hikes in September and December, elevating the federal funds rate path and pushing Treasury yields higher. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus among traders committing capital, while the 39.5% probability of no change accounts for potential moderation in subsequent releases. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and upcoming PCE data will serve as key near-term catalysts influencing December pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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