Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise alongside core inflation easing to 2.5%, combined with a weak nonfarm payrolls report indicating job losses, has tempered trader expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening through year-end. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, market-implied probabilities favor zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, reflecting uncertainty around the September FOMC meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach without forward guidance. Persistent inflation above the 2% target supports hawkish positioning, yet softer price pressures and labor market cooling have shifted sentiment away from multiple increases. Traders will closely monitor upcoming CPI releases and the September decision for further clarity on the policy path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 47%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 bps) 3.4%
$161,147 ปริมาณ
$161,147 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
47%
1 (25 bps)
35%
2 (50 bps)
13%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 47%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 bps) 3.4%
$161,147 ปริมาณ
$161,147 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$69,403 ปริมาณ
47%
1 (25 bps)
$22,214 ปริมาณ
35%
2 (50 bps)
$39,028 ปริมาณ
13%
3 (75 bps)
$18,614 ปริมาณ
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,557 ปริมาณ
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,331 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise alongside core inflation easing to 2.5%, combined with a weak nonfarm payrolls report indicating job losses, has tempered trader expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening through year-end. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, market-implied probabilities favor zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, reflecting uncertainty around the September FOMC meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach without forward guidance. Persistent inflation above the 2% target supports hawkish positioning, yet softer price pressures and labor market cooling have shifted sentiment away from multiple increases. Traders will closely monitor upcoming CPI releases and the September decision for further clarity on the policy path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$161,147วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise alongside core inflation easing to 2.5%, combined with a weak nonfarm payrolls report indicating job losses, has tempered trader expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening through year-end. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, market-implied probabilities favor zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, reflecting uncertainty around the September FOMC meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach without forward guidance. Persistent inflation above the 2% target supports hawkish positioning, yet softer price pressures and labor market cooling have shifted sentiment away from multiple increases. Traders will closely monitor upcoming CPI releases and the September decision for further clarity on the policy path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$161,147วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise alongside core inflation easing to 2.5%, combined with a weak nonfarm payrolls report indicating job losses, has tempered trader expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening through year-end. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, market-implied probabilities favor zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, reflecting uncertainty around the September FOMC meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach without forward guidance. Persistent inflation above the 2% target supports hawkish positioning, yet softer price pressures and labor market cooling have shifted sentiment away from multiple increases. Traders will closely monitor upcoming CPI releases and the September decision for further clarity on the policy path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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