Recent statements from senior Turkish officials, including presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek, confirm plans for the next presidential election in April 2028, with mechanisms under Article 116 of the constitution allowing Parliament to trigger an early vote that would permit Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a third term. The ruling Justice and Development Party alliance holds 326 seats in the 600-member Parliament and maintains support from the Nationalist Movement Party, while the main opposition faces legal constraints and weakened capacity ahead of any vote. No parliamentary majority exists for an earlier contest, and no major diplomatic, economic, or institutional developments in recent months point to resignation, removal, or term interruption before year-end. Trader consensus on "No" reflects these structural and political realities. Even at high probabilities, low-probability catalysts such as acute health developments, alliance fractures, or sudden parliamentary shifts could still alter the timeline within the resolution window.