Turkey’s presidential term limits and parliamentary procedures for calling early elections form the central dynamic for markets on when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will leave office. The next scheduled vote is set for May 2028, though allies including MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum have pushed for a parliamentary decision—requiring 360 of 600 seats—to advance it to April 16, 2028, activating a constitutional exception that would permit Erdoğan’s third candidacy. The ruling People’s Alliance currently holds 326 seats and remains short of the threshold. Recent developments include opposition fragmentation, legal proceedings against potential challengers such as Ekrem İmamoğlu, a cabinet reshuffle, and Erdoğan’s call for constitutional reform, all of which shape assessments of whether he completes the current term or extends his tenure.