Erdoğan's current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey's constitutional framework, with no scheduled national election or formal removal process before the end of 2026. Recent appeals court rulings in May 2026 ousting the main opposition CHP leader and ongoing legal proceedings against other challengers have further consolidated institutional control and limited organized resistance. No early election has been called despite economic pressures, and statements from the president indicate continued tenure. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability on "No" aligns with these structural barriers, though late developments such as health issues, constitutional amendments enabling a snap vote, or sudden leadership transitions could still alter the outlook.