Groupon’s (GRPN) implied probability of beating Q2 2026 earnings estimates stands at 100%, reflecting strong trader consensus ahead of the August 6 release. This positioning stems primarily from downward revisions to the Zacks consensus EPS of -$0.08, which have created a low hurdle relative to recent operational trends and company guidance for modest revenue growth around $127 million. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that management’s cost controls and local commerce initiatives will deliver a positive earnings surprise, consistent with patterns where lowered estimates precede beats. While the near-certain odds indicate minimal doubt, tail risks such as unexpected revenue shortfalls, higher-than-anticipated marketing spend, or adverse one-time items could still alter the outcome on release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>99% chance
$9,601 Vol.
$9,601 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
>99% chance
$9,601 Vol.
$9,601 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
As of market creation, Groupon is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Groupon's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.06 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Groupon reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.06 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Groupon releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Groupon’s (GRPN) implied probability of beating Q2 2026 earnings estimates stands at 100%, reflecting strong trader consensus ahead of the August 6 release. This positioning stems primarily from downward revisions to the Zacks consensus EPS of -$0.08, which have created a low hurdle relative to recent operational trends and company guidance for modest revenue growth around $127 million. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that management’s cost controls and local commerce initiatives will deliver a positive earnings surprise, consistent with patterns where lowered estimates precede beats. While the near-certain odds indicate minimal doubt, tail risks such as unexpected revenue shortfalls, higher-than-anticipated marketing spend, or adverse one-time items could still alter the outcome on release.
As of market creation, Groupon is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Groupon's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.06 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Groupon reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.06 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Groupon releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Groupon releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Volume
$9,601End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
As of market creation, Groupon is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Groupon's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.06 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Groupon reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.06 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Groupon releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Groupon’s (GRPN) implied probability of beating Q2 2026 earnings estimates stands at 100%, reflecting strong trader consensus ahead of the August 6 release. This positioning stems primarily from downward revisions to the Zacks consensus EPS of -$0.08, which have created a low hurdle relative to recent operational trends and company guidance for modest revenue growth around $127 million. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that management’s cost controls and local commerce initiatives will deliver a positive earnings surprise, consistent with patterns where lowered estimates precede beats. While the near-certain odds indicate minimal doubt, tail risks such as unexpected revenue shortfalls, higher-than-anticipated marketing spend, or adverse one-time items could still alter the outcome on release.
As of market creation, Groupon is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Groupon's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.06 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Groupon reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.06 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Groupon releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Groupon releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$9,601End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Groupon’s (GRPN) implied probability of beating Q2 2026 earnings estimates stands at 100%, reflecting strong trader consensus ahead of the August 6 release. This positioning stems primarily from downward revisions to the Zacks consensus EPS of -$0.08, which have created a low hurdle relative to recent operational trends and company guidance for modest revenue growth around $127 million. Traders are pricing in the likelihood that management’s cost controls and local commerce initiatives will deliver a positive earnings surprise, consistent with patterns where lowered estimates precede beats. While the near-certain odds indicate minimal doubt, tail risks such as unexpected revenue shortfalls, higher-than-anticipated marketing spend, or adverse one-time items could still alter the outcome on release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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