Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military targets and naval forces over the past four weeks—triggered by Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure and proxy attacks—President Trump has avoided a formal congressional war declaration, framing operations as targeted actions rather than full-scale war. Recent diplomatic maneuvers dominate: Trump extended a deadline for power grid strikes to April 6 while reporting talks "going well," following a 15-point US proposal relayed via Pakistan; Iran countered with demands for reparations and sovereignty guarantees. Senate rejections of war powers resolutions preserve executive flexibility. Upcoming negotiations or Hormuz developments could shift dynamics, but historical rarity of declarations since World War II underpins trader caution on formal escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоОбъявит ли Трамп войну Ирану...?
Объявит ли Трамп войну Ирану...?
$548,238 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
31 марта
2%
30 апреля
6%
$548,238 Объем
31 марта
$211,312 Объем
2%
30 апреля
$9,905 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military targets and naval forces over the past four weeks—triggered by Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure and proxy attacks—President Trump has avoided a formal congressional war declaration, framing operations as targeted actions rather than full-scale war. Recent diplomatic maneuvers dominate: Trump extended a deadline for power grid strikes to April 6 while reporting talks "going well," following a 15-point US proposal relayed via Pakistan; Iran countered with demands for reparations and sovereignty guarantees. Senate rejections of war powers resolutions preserve executive flexibility. Upcoming negotiations or Hormuz developments could shift dynamics, but historical rarity of declarations since World War II underpins trader caution on formal escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Объем
$548,238Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military targets and naval forces over the past four weeks—triggered by Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure and proxy attacks—President Trump has avoided a formal congressional war declaration, framing operations as targeted actions rather than full-scale war. Recent diplomatic maneuvers dominate: Trump extended a deadline for power grid strikes to April 6 while reporting talks "going well," following a 15-point US proposal relayed via Pakistan; Iran countered with demands for reparations and sovereignty guarantees. Senate rejections of war powers resolutions preserve executive flexibility. Upcoming negotiations or Hormuz developments could shift dynamics, but historical rarity of declarations since World War II underpins trader caution on formal escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$548,238Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military targets and naval forces over the past four weeks—triggered by Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure and proxy attacks—President Trump has avoided a formal congressional war declaration, framing operations as targeted actions rather than full-scale war. Recent diplomatic maneuvers dominate: Trump extended a deadline for power grid strikes to April 6 while reporting talks "going well," following a 15-point US proposal relayed via Pakistan; Iran countered with demands for reparations and sovereignty guarantees. Senate rejections of war powers resolutions preserve executive flexibility. Upcoming negotiations or Hormuz developments could shift dynamics, but historical rarity of declarations since World War II underpins trader caution on formal escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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