Trader consensus on Polymarket shows low implied probability for a US formal declaration of war on Iran by the specified date, driven by historical precedent—no such congressional declaration since World War II—and the Biden administration's emphasis on defensive support for Israel amid recent escalations. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in late October 2024 drew Iranian missile retaliation, with US forces aiding intercepts but no offensive involvement, as President Biden pledged no American boots on the ground. Bipartisan congressional resolutions stress requiring explicit authorization for hostilities, limiting executive options. The November 5 presidential election looms as a potential policy pivot, though major provocation would be needed to shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБудут ли США официально объявлять войну Ирану...?
Будут ли США официально объявлять войну Ирану...?
$3,958,920 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
31 марта
<1%
30 апреля
2%
31 декабря
9%
$3,958,920 Объем
31 марта
$3,667,844 Объем
<1%
30 апреля
$33 Объем
2%
31 декабря
$291,043 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Объем
$3,958,920Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$3,958,920Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows low implied probability for a US formal declaration of war on Iran by the specified date, driven by historical precedent—no such congressional declaration since World War II—and the Biden administration's emphasis on defensive support for Israel amid recent escalations. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in late October 2024 drew Iranian missile retaliation, with US forces aiding intercepts but no offensive involvement, as President Biden pledged no American boots on the ground. Bipartisan congressional resolutions stress requiring explicit authorization for hostilities, limiting executive options. The November 5 presidential election looms as a potential policy pivot, though major provocation would be needed to shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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