Trader consensus shows 96% implied probability against the US deporting illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, primarily due to the absence of any official policy announcement, diplomatic agreement, or logistical framework from US immigration authorities or the incoming Trump administration. Mass deportation pledges focus on repatriation to countries of origin, with third-country removals like Argentina requiring bilateral negotiations that have not materialized amid strained resources at ICE and DHS. Recent developments, including post-election transition planning, emphasize border enforcement over novel destinations. Realistic shifts could arise from an unexpected US-Argentina deal, perhaps leveraging President Milei's pro-Trump stance, or accelerated executive actions post-January 20 inauguration, though timelines remain tight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Объем
$5,267Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,267Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus shows 96% implied probability against the US deporting illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, primarily due to the absence of any official policy announcement, diplomatic agreement, or logistical framework from US immigration authorities or the incoming Trump administration. Mass deportation pledges focus on repatriation to countries of origin, with third-country removals like Argentina requiring bilateral negotiations that have not materialized amid strained resources at ICE and DHS. Recent developments, including post-election transition planning, emphasize border enforcement over novel destinations. Realistic shifts could arise from an unexpected US-Argentina deal, perhaps leveraging President Milei's pro-Trump stance, or accelerated executive actions post-January 20 inauguration, though timelines remain tight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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