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Будут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?

Market icon

Будут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?

Mar 31

Mar 31

Да

4% chance
Polymarket

$341,145 Объем

Да

4% chance
Polymarket

$341,145 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities. To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify. Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify. Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that the US will not conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the Biden administration's consistent emphasis on de-escalation and diplomatic pressure over direct cyber or kinetic escalation against Tehran. Recent US responses to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and militia strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have involved targeted airstrikes on proxy groups and naval interdictions, not sovereign Iranian cyber operations, aligning with historical patterns of calibrated deterrence short of major confrontation. No official statements, intelligence leaks, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for such an action. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe Iranian provocation, like direct attacks on US soil or allies triggering executive orders, though institutional barriers and election-year caution make this unlikely absent a crisis.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that the US will not conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the Biden administration's consistent emphasis on de-escalation and diplomatic pressure over direct cyber or kinetic escalation against Tehran. Recent US responses to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and militia strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have involved targeted airstrikes on proxy groups and naval interdictions, not sovereign Iranian cyber operations, aligning with historical patterns of calibrated deterrence short of major confrontation. No official statements, intelligence leaks, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for such an action. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe Iranian provocation, like direct attacks on US soil or allies triggering executive orders, though institutional barriers and election-year caution make this unlikely absent a crisis.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities. To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify. Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify. Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that the US will not conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the Biden administration's consistent emphasis on de-escalation and diplomatic pressure over direct cyber or kinetic escalation against Tehran. Recent US responses to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and militia strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have involved targeted airstrikes on proxy groups and naval interdictions, not sovereign Iranian cyber operations, aligning with historical patterns of calibrated deterrence short of major confrontation. No official statements, intelligence leaks, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for such an action. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe Iranian provocation, like direct attacks on US soil or allies triggering executive orders, though institutional barriers and election-year caution make this unlikely absent a crisis.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that the US will not conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the Biden administration's consistent emphasis on de-escalation and diplomatic pressure over direct cyber or kinetic escalation against Tehran. Recent US responses to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and militia strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have involved targeted airstrikes on proxy groups and naval interdictions, not sovereign Iranian cyber operations, aligning with historical patterns of calibrated deterrence short of major confrontation. No official statements, intelligence leaks, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for such an action. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe Iranian provocation, like direct attacks on US soil or allies triggering executive orders, though institutional barriers and election-year caution make this unlikely absent a crisis.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Будут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Начнет ли США кибератаку против Ирана до 31 марта?» с 4%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 4¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 4%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Будут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $341.1K с момента запуска рынка Jan 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Будут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Будут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?» — «Начнет ли США кибератаку против Ирана до 31 марта?» всего с 4%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Будут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.