Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the ongoing conflict, traders price "No" at 96.5% due to the absence of confirmed US Cyber Command offensive operations against Iranian targets by the March 31 deadline, with only days remaining. Recent developments center on Iranian-linked hackers targeting US firms like Stryker and infrastructure warnings from CISA and ex-officials on March 26, prompting defensive DOJ seizures of Iran-affiliated domains on March 20. Kinetic airstrikes and naval actions dominate US responses, while unverified early-March reports of missile system disruptions lack primary attribution to US cyber efforts. Realistic shifts could arise from late-breaking leaks, major Iranian provocations, or sudden executive orders authorizing retaliation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБудут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?
Будут ли США проводить кибератаку на Иран до 31 марта?
Да
$341,145 Объем
$341,145 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Да
$341,145 Объем
$341,145 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the ongoing conflict, traders price "No" at 96.5% due to the absence of confirmed US Cyber Command offensive operations against Iranian targets by the March 31 deadline, with only days remaining. Recent developments center on Iranian-linked hackers targeting US firms like Stryker and infrastructure warnings from CISA and ex-officials on March 26, prompting defensive DOJ seizures of Iran-affiliated domains on March 20. Kinetic airstrikes and naval actions dominate US responses, while unverified early-March reports of missile system disruptions lack primary attribution to US cyber efforts. Realistic shifts could arise from late-breaking leaks, major Iranian provocations, or sudden executive orders authorizing retaliation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Объем
$341,145Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the ongoing conflict, traders price "No" at 96.5% due to the absence of confirmed US Cyber Command offensive operations against Iranian targets by the March 31 deadline, with only days remaining. Recent developments center on Iranian-linked hackers targeting US firms like Stryker and infrastructure warnings from CISA and ex-officials on March 26, prompting defensive DOJ seizures of Iran-affiliated domains on March 20. Kinetic airstrikes and naval actions dominate US responses, while unverified early-March reports of missile system disruptions lack primary attribution to US cyber efforts. Realistic shifts could arise from late-breaking leaks, major Iranian provocations, or sudden executive orders authorizing retaliation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$341,145Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the ongoing conflict, traders price "No" at 96.5% due to the absence of confirmed US Cyber Command offensive operations against Iranian targets by the March 31 deadline, with only days remaining. Recent developments center on Iranian-linked hackers targeting US firms like Stryker and infrastructure warnings from CISA and ex-officials on March 26, prompting defensive DOJ seizures of Iran-affiliated domains on March 20. Kinetic airstrikes and naval actions dominate US responses, while unverified early-March reports of missile system disruptions lack primary attribution to US cyber efforts. Realistic shifts could arise from late-breaking leaks, major Iranian provocations, or sudden executive orders authorizing retaliation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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