With the March 31 deadline approaching and no major breakthroughs reported in the past week, traders overwhelmingly bet against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing El Obeid, a key Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) stronghold in North Kordofan, pricing "No" at 96.4%. Recent SAF defenses repelled RSF probes on the city's outskirts last weekend, while RSF forces remain stretched across fronts in Khartoum and Sennar amid supply challenges and heavy casualties. El Obeid's fortified position and SAF reinforcements have stalled advances since mid-February, reflecting the grinding stalemate in Sudan's civil war. A sudden escalation, such as unexpected RSF reinforcements or diplomatic shifts altering aid flows, could theoretically shift odds, though time constraints make this unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЗахватят ли «Репортеры без границ» Эль-Обейд к 31 марта?
Захватят ли «Репортеры без границ» Эль-Обейд к 31 марта?
Да
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture El Obeid (https://maps.app.goo.gl/NQaTN51errVH9KyN6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "El-Obeid Great Mosque" (مسجد الأبيّض الكبير: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LyxD1PPGux7CYSdYA) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.With the March 31 deadline approaching and no major breakthroughs reported in the past week, traders overwhelmingly bet against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing El Obeid, a key Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) stronghold in North Kordofan, pricing "No" at 96.4%. Recent SAF defenses repelled RSF probes on the city's outskirts last weekend, while RSF forces remain stretched across fronts in Khartoum and Sennar amid supply challenges and heavy casualties. El Obeid's fortified position and SAF reinforcements have stalled advances since mid-February, reflecting the grinding stalemate in Sudan's civil war. A sudden escalation, such as unexpected RSF reinforcements or diplomatic shifts altering aid flows, could theoretically shift odds, though time constraints make this unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture El Obeid (https://maps.app.goo.gl/NQaTN51errVH9KyN6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "El-Obeid Great Mosque" (مسجد الأبيّض الكبير: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LyxD1PPGux7CYSdYA) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "El-Obeid Great Mosque" (مسجد الأبيّض الكبير: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LyxD1PPGux7CYSdYA) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture El Obeid (https://maps.app.goo.gl/NQaTN51errVH9KyN6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "El-Obeid Great Mosque" (مسجد الأبيّض الكبير: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LyxD1PPGux7CYSdYA) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.With the March 31 deadline approaching and no major breakthroughs reported in the past week, traders overwhelmingly bet against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing El Obeid, a key Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) stronghold in North Kordofan, pricing "No" at 96.4%. Recent SAF defenses repelled RSF probes on the city's outskirts last weekend, while RSF forces remain stretched across fronts in Khartoum and Sennar amid supply challenges and heavy casualties. El Obeid's fortified position and SAF reinforcements have stalled advances since mid-February, reflecting the grinding stalemate in Sudan's civil war. A sudden escalation, such as unexpected RSF reinforcements or diplomatic shifts altering aid flows, could theoretically shift odds, though time constraints make this unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture El Obeid (https://maps.app.goo.gl/NQaTN51errVH9KyN6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "El-Obeid Great Mosque" (مسجد الأبيّض الكبير: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LyxD1PPGux7CYSdYA) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "El-Obeid Great Mosque" (مسجد الأبيّض الكبير: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LyxD1PPGux7CYSdYA) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With the March 31 deadline approaching and no major breakthroughs reported in the past week, traders overwhelmingly bet against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing El Obeid, a key Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) stronghold in North Kordofan, pricing "No" at 96.4%. Recent SAF defenses repelled RSF probes on the city's outskirts last weekend, while RSF forces remain stretched across fronts in Khartoum and Sennar amid supply challenges and heavy casualties. El Obeid's fortified position and SAF reinforcements have stalled advances since mid-February, reflecting the grinding stalemate in Sudan's civil war. A sudden escalation, such as unexpected RSF reinforcements or diplomatic shifts altering aid flows, could theoretically shift odds, though time constraints make this unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы