Trader consensus prices an 89% implied probability on "No" for an Iranian agent being charged in the US by April 30, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice indictments despite heightened tensions after US airstrikes on Iran in late March. The most recent major development was a March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an IRGC-trained operative, for a foiled 2024 assassination plot targeting US officials including Donald Trump—pertaining to prior charges rather than a fresh case. February's indictments of three Iranian national engineers for stealing Google trade secrets and sending them to Tehran represent economic espionage but lack explicit "agent" designation tied to Iranian intelligence like the IRGC. With no announced probes or upcoming hearings signaling imminent action, traders anticipate no qualifying charges before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБудет ли иранскому агенту предъявлено обвинение в США до 30 апреля?
Будет ли иранскому агенту предъявлено обвинение в США до 30 апреля?
Да
$26,337 Объем
$26,337 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
Да
$26,337 Объем
$26,337 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trader consensus prices an 89% implied probability on "No" for an Iranian agent being charged in the US by April 30, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice indictments despite heightened tensions after US airstrikes on Iran in late March. The most recent major development was a March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an IRGC-trained operative, for a foiled 2024 assassination plot targeting US officials including Donald Trump—pertaining to prior charges rather than a fresh case. February's indictments of three Iranian national engineers for stealing Google trade secrets and sending them to Tehran represent economic espionage but lack explicit "agent" designation tied to Iranian intelligence like the IRGC. With no announced probes or upcoming hearings signaling imminent action, traders anticipate no qualifying charges before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Объем
$26,337Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trader consensus prices an 89% implied probability on "No" for an Iranian agent being charged in the US by April 30, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice indictments despite heightened tensions after US airstrikes on Iran in late March. The most recent major development was a March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an IRGC-trained operative, for a foiled 2024 assassination plot targeting US officials including Donald Trump—pertaining to prior charges rather than a fresh case. February's indictments of three Iranian national engineers for stealing Google trade secrets and sending them to Tehran represent economic espionage but lack explicit "agent" designation tied to Iranian intelligence like the IRGC. With no announced probes or upcoming hearings signaling imminent action, traders anticipate no qualifying charges before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$26,337Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 89% implied probability on "No" for an Iranian agent being charged in the US by April 30, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice indictments despite heightened tensions after US airstrikes on Iran in late March. The most recent major development was a March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an IRGC-trained operative, for a foiled 2024 assassination plot targeting US officials including Donald Trump—pertaining to prior charges rather than a fresh case. February's indictments of three Iranian national engineers for stealing Google trade secrets and sending them to Tehran represent economic espionage but lack explicit "agent" designation tied to Iranian intelligence like the IRGC. With no announced probes or upcoming hearings signaling imminent action, traders anticipate no qualifying charges before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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