**Ongoing de-escalation in the 2026 Iran war shapes the near-term outlook.** The United States and Israel began strikes on Iranian targets in late February, focusing on military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile capabilities, prompting Iranian missile and drone responses plus attempts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent weeks have featured drone incidents, limited US strikes on Iranian radar and command sites, and Iranian warnings, yet direct ground operations into Iranian territory have not occurred. As of mid-June, the parties have reached a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities, reopen the strait, reduce regional forces, and address the nuclear program within 60 days. Pakistan-mediated talks culminated in a digitally signed framework on June 14, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Israel continues limited operations in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah, but US-Iran military activity is winding down ahead of the deadline. These diplomatic developments reduce the likelihood of new ground entries by US, Israeli, or other forces before June 30, though any breakdown in implementation could alter trajectories. Trader consensus reflects this pause in kinetic escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$419,671 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Любой член Палаты представителей США
2%
Любой сенатор США
1%
Джей Ди Ванс
1%
Джаред Кушнер
1%
Марко Рубио
1%
Биньямин Нетаньяху
<1%
Пит Хегсет
<1%
Дональд Трамп
<1%
$419,671 Объем
Любой член Палаты представителей США
$94,315 Объем
2%
Любой сенатор США
$31,316 Объем
1%
Джей Ди Ванс
$36,441 Объем
1%
Джаред Кушнер
$15,931 Объем
1%
Марко Рубио
$22,703 Объем
1%
Биньямин Нетаньяху
$50,161 Объем
<1%
Пит Хегсет
$97,337 Объем
<1%
Дональд Трамп
$71,468 Объем
<1%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing de-escalation in the 2026 Iran war shapes the near-term outlook.** The United States and Israel began strikes on Iranian targets in late February, focusing on military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile capabilities, prompting Iranian missile and drone responses plus attempts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent weeks have featured drone incidents, limited US strikes on Iranian radar and command sites, and Iranian warnings, yet direct ground operations into Iranian territory have not occurred.
As of mid-June, the parties have reached a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities, reopen the strait, reduce regional forces, and address the nuclear program within 60 days. Pakistan-mediated talks culminated in a digitally signed framework on June 14, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Israel continues limited operations in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah, but US-Iran military activity is winding down ahead of the deadline. These diplomatic developments reduce the likelihood of new ground entries by US, Israeli, or other forces before June 30, though any breakdown in implementation could alter trajectories. Trader consensus reflects this pause in kinetic escalation.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Объем
$419,671Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing de-escalation in the 2026 Iran war shapes the near-term outlook.** The United States and Israel began strikes on Iranian targets in late February, focusing on military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile capabilities, prompting Iranian missile and drone responses plus attempts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent weeks have featured drone incidents, limited US strikes on Iranian radar and command sites, and Iranian warnings, yet direct ground operations into Iranian territory have not occurred.
As of mid-June, the parties have reached a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities, reopen the strait, reduce regional forces, and address the nuclear program within 60 days. Pakistan-mediated talks culminated in a digitally signed framework on June 14, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Israel continues limited operations in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah, but US-Iran military activity is winding down ahead of the deadline. These diplomatic developments reduce the likelihood of new ground entries by US, Israeli, or other forces before June 30, though any breakdown in implementation could alter trajectories. Trader consensus reflects this pause in kinetic escalation.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$419,671Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing de-escalation in the 2026 Iran war shapes the near-term outlook.** The United States and Israel began strikes on Iranian targets in late February, focusing on military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile capabilities, prompting Iranian missile and drone responses plus attempts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent weeks have featured drone incidents, limited US strikes on Iranian radar and command sites, and Iranian warnings, yet direct ground operations into Iranian territory have not occurred. As of mid-June, the parties have reached a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities, reopen the strait, reduce regional forces, and address the nuclear program within 60 days. Pakistan-mediated talks culminated in a digitally signed framework on June 14, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Israel continues limited operations in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah, but US-Iran military activity is winding down ahead of the deadline. These diplomatic developments reduce the likelihood of new ground entries by US, Israeli, or other forces before June 30, though any breakdown in implementation could alter trajectories. Trader consensus reflects this pause in kinetic escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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