Tensions between Israel and Iran persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack. In the past 30 days, no verifiable strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, though Israel has escalated operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation. The US and UK continue airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—another Iran-backed group disrupting Red Sea shipping—but emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader conflict. Incoming Trump administration foreign policy signals post-January 20 inauguration, including potential sanctions or support for Israeli actions, could heighten risks before the March 31 deadline, amid stalled nuclear diplomacy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$10,212,938 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Саудовская Аравия
12%
ОАЭ
7%
Бахрейн
3%
Катар
3%
Кувейт
2%
Великобритания
1%
Любая страна ЕС
1%
Иордания
1%
Турция
1%
Франция
1%
Оман
1%
Германия
<1%
Канада
<1%
$10,212,938 Объем
Саудовская Аравия
$2,034,773 Объем
12%
ОАЭ
$2,534,318 Объем
7%
Бахрейн
$386,444 Объем
3%
Катар
$926,220 Объем
3%
Кувейт
$206,606 Объем
2%
Великобритания
$931,837 Объем
1%
Любая страна ЕС
$451,068 Объем
1%
Иордания
$183,019 Объем
1%
Турция
$469,951 Объем
1%
Франция
$722,115 Объем
1%
Оман
$128,149 Объем
1%
Германия
$905,087 Объем
<1%
Канада
$333,350 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Iran persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack. In the past 30 days, no verifiable strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, though Israel has escalated operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation. The US and UK continue airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—another Iran-backed group disrupting Red Sea shipping—but emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader conflict. Incoming Trump administration foreign policy signals post-January 20 inauguration, including potential sanctions or support for Israeli actions, could heighten risks before the March 31 deadline, amid stalled nuclear diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Объем
$10,212,938Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Iran persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack. In the past 30 days, no verifiable strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, though Israel has escalated operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation. The US and UK continue airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—another Iran-backed group disrupting Red Sea shipping—but emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader conflict. Incoming Trump administration foreign policy signals post-January 20 inauguration, including potential sanctions or support for Israeli actions, could heighten risks before the March 31 deadline, amid stalled nuclear diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$10,212,938Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Israel and Iran persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack. In the past 30 days, no verifiable strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, though Israel has escalated operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation. The US and UK continue airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—another Iran-backed group disrupting Red Sea shipping—but emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader conflict. Incoming Trump administration foreign policy signals post-January 20 inauguration, including potential sanctions or support for Israeli actions, could heighten risks before the March 31 deadline, amid stalled nuclear diplomacy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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