The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$10,859,381 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Саудовская Аравия
3%
Катар
3%
ОАЭ
3%
Бахрейн
2%
Иордания
1%
Великобритания
1%
Кувейт
1%
Турция
1%
Франция
1%
Любая страна ЕС
1%
Оман
1%
Германия
<1%
Канада
<1%
$10,859,381 Объем
Саудовская Аравия
$2,215,519 Объем
3%
Катар
$950,260 Объем
3%
ОАЭ
$2,858,966 Объем
3%
Бахрейн
$393,521 Объем
2%
Иордания
$189,690 Объем
1%
Великобритания
$948,392 Объем
1%
Кувейт
$211,711 Объем
1%
Турция
$481,803 Объем
1%
Франция
$750,377 Объем
1%
Любая страна ЕС
$473,319 Объем
1%
Оман
$132,169 Объем
1%
Германия
$912,757 Объем
<1%
Канада
$340,897 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Объем
$10,859,381Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$10,859,381Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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