Recent recognitions by Spain, Norway, Ireland, Slovenia, and Armenia in 2024 have fueled trader optimism for further diplomatic shifts toward Palestinian statehood before 2027, reflecting growing momentum amid the Israel-Gaza conflict and UN General Assembly pressure. However, major holdouts like the US, UK, Germany, and France maintain opposition or conditions tied to direct negotiations, tempering probabilities. Trader consensus on Polymarket implies low odds for Western powers but higher for nations like Brazil or South Africa. Upcoming EU foreign ministers' meetings and potential US policy changes post-2024 election could catalyze movement, though entrenched alliances sustain caution in pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$38,126 Объем

Соединённые Штаты
7%

Италия
15%

Нидерланды
19%

Япония
16%

Германия
8%

Бельгия
36%

Финляндия
11%

Австрия
13%

Греция
9%

Новая Зеландия
27%
$38,126 Объем

Соединённые Штаты
7%

Италия
15%

Нидерланды
19%

Япония
16%

Германия
8%

Бельгия
36%

Финляндия
11%

Австрия
13%

Греция
9%

Новая Зеландия
27%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent recognitions by Spain, Norway, Ireland, Slovenia, and Armenia in 2024 have fueled trader optimism for further diplomatic shifts toward Palestinian statehood before 2027, reflecting growing momentum amid the Israel-Gaza conflict and UN General Assembly pressure. However, major holdouts like the US, UK, Germany, and France maintain opposition or conditions tied to direct negotiations, tempering probabilities. Trader consensus on Polymarket implies low odds for Western powers but higher for nations like Brazil or South Africa. Upcoming EU foreign ministers' meetings and potential US policy changes post-2024 election could catalyze movement, though entrenched alliances sustain caution in pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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