Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, naval arms production, and natural gas infrastructure, dominate trader consensus amid escalating retaliatory missile barrages from Tehran that wounded over 300 US soldiers this week. Israel's Defense Minister vowed intensified strikes following Iran's attacks on civilian areas, while UK, France, and Germany issued statements signaling readiness for defensive actions to dismantle Iranian missile and drone capabilities. Saudi Arabia and UAE signal impatience with proxy threats to their energy facilities, positioning them as potential escalators in a broadening coalition. Diplomatic pushes for de-escalation persist, but no summits are scheduled before April 30 resolution, leaving odds sensitive to further Iranian provocations or allied restraint.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$107,116 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
29%
UAE
25%
Kuwait
7%
Bahrain
7%
France
6%
UK
6%
Jordan
6%
Qatar
6%
Any E.U. Country
6%
Turkey
5%
Oman
4%
Germany
4%
Canada
1%
$107,116 Объем
Saudi Arabia
$52,718 Объем
29%
UAE
$24,275 Объем
25%
Kuwait
$1,178 Объем
7%
Bahrain
$475 Объем
7%
France
$3,966 Объем
6%
UK
$17,522 Объем
6%
Jordan
$892 Объем
6%
Qatar
$410 Объем
6%
Any E.U. Country
$2,430 Объем
6%
Turkey
$819 Объем
5%
Oman
$313 Объем
4%
Germany
$2,131 Объем
4%
Canada
$0 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, naval arms production, and natural gas infrastructure, dominate trader consensus amid escalating retaliatory missile barrages from Tehran that wounded over 300 US soldiers this week. Israel's Defense Minister vowed intensified strikes following Iran's attacks on civilian areas, while UK, France, and Germany issued statements signaling readiness for defensive actions to dismantle Iranian missile and drone capabilities. Saudi Arabia and UAE signal impatience with proxy threats to their energy facilities, positioning them as potential escalators in a broadening coalition. Diplomatic pushes for de-escalation persist, but no summits are scheduled before April 30 resolution, leaving odds sensitive to further Iranian provocations or allied restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Объем
$107,116Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, naval arms production, and natural gas infrastructure, dominate trader consensus amid escalating retaliatory missile barrages from Tehran that wounded over 300 US soldiers this week. Israel's Defense Minister vowed intensified strikes following Iran's attacks on civilian areas, while UK, France, and Germany issued statements signaling readiness for defensive actions to dismantle Iranian missile and drone capabilities. Saudi Arabia and UAE signal impatience with proxy threats to their energy facilities, positioning them as potential escalators in a broadening coalition. Diplomatic pushes for de-escalation persist, but no summits are scheduled before April 30 resolution, leaving odds sensitive to further Iranian provocations or allied restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$107,116Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, naval arms production, and natural gas infrastructure, dominate trader consensus amid escalating retaliatory missile barrages from Tehran that wounded over 300 US soldiers this week. Israel's Defense Minister vowed intensified strikes following Iran's attacks on civilian areas, while UK, France, and Germany issued statements signaling readiness for defensive actions to dismantle Iranian missile and drone capabilities. Saudi Arabia and UAE signal impatience with proxy threats to their energy facilities, positioning them as potential escalators in a broadening coalition. Diplomatic pushes for de-escalation persist, but no summits are scheduled before April 30 resolution, leaving odds sensitive to further Iranian provocations or allied restraint.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы