Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Google at 68.5% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, as measured by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard, reflecting its current positioning with Gemini 3.1 Pro in third place behind Anthropic's dominant Claude Opus 4.6-thinking and base variants. This stability stems from Google's February 2026 release of Gemini 3.1 Pro, which boosted multimodal capabilities and long-context handling, solidifying its edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series and xAI's Grok 4.20 betas currently ranked lower. Anthropic trails at 25.5% amid speculation that a second Claude model could slip if rivals like xAI advance agentic features before resolution, though no major leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past week. Watch for pre-deadline announcements at developer conferences that could alter frontier model rankings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the third best AI model end of April?
Which company has the third best AI model end of April?
Google 69%
Anthropic 26%
OpenAI 3.1%
xAI 2.3%
$114,400 Объем
$114,400 Объем

69%

Anthropic
26%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
1%

Baidu
1%

Amazon
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Google 69%
Anthropic 26%
OpenAI 3.1%
xAI 2.3%
$114,400 Объем
$114,400 Объем

69%

Anthropic
26%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
1%

Baidu
1%

Amazon
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Google at 68.5% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, as measured by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard, reflecting its current positioning with Gemini 3.1 Pro in third place behind Anthropic's dominant Claude Opus 4.6-thinking and base variants. This stability stems from Google's February 2026 release of Gemini 3.1 Pro, which boosted multimodal capabilities and long-context handling, solidifying its edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series and xAI's Grok 4.20 betas currently ranked lower. Anthropic trails at 25.5% amid speculation that a second Claude model could slip if rivals like xAI advance agentic features before resolution, though no major leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past week. Watch for pre-deadline announcements at developer conferences that could alter frontier model rankings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы