Tensions between Iran and Israel persist after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowing "severe punishment" but no direct retaliation launched since. Recent weeks have seen de-escalation signals via Iranian-backed proxies, including a U.S.-brokered Lebanon ceasefire in November 2024 and reduced Houthi attacks on shipping following U.S. strikes, though low-level exchanges continue in Syria and Gaza. Incoming U.S. President Trump's hawkish foreign policy, including threats of maximum pressure sanctions, may deter Iranian escalation ahead of the March 31 deadline, while IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear advancements add uncertainty to trader consensus on potential targets like Israeli assets, U.S. bases, or maritime routes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЧто ударит по Ирану до 31 марта?
Что ударит по Ирану до 31 марта?
$446,809 Объем
Димона (Ядерный исследовательский центр имени Шимона Переса в Негеве)
3%
Бурдж-Халифа
3%
Месторождение Гавар
9%
Месторождение Сафания
9%
Нефтеперерабатывающий завод Абкаик
11%
НПЗ Аль-Зур
11%
Leviathan Field
8%
Khurais Field
11%
Рас-Танура
11%
East–West Pipeline
8%
Месторождение/перерабатывающий комплекс Хабшан
12%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
28%
$446,809 Объем
Димона (Ядерный исследовательский центр имени Шимона Переса в Негеве)
$249,108 Объем
3%
Бурдж-Халифа
$1,339 Объем
3%
Месторождение Гавар
$30,351 Объем
9%
Месторождение Сафания
$39,777 Объем
9%
Нефтеперерабатывающий завод Абкаик
$38,803 Объем
11%
НПЗ Аль-Зур
$73,644 Объем
11%
Leviathan Field
$796 Объем
8%
Khurais Field
$4,333 Объем
11%
Рас-Танура
$4,290 Объем
11%
East–West Pipeline
$1,306 Объем
8%
Месторождение/перерабатывающий комплекс Хабшан
$0 Объем
12%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$3,060 Объем
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel persist after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowing "severe punishment" but no direct retaliation launched since. Recent weeks have seen de-escalation signals via Iranian-backed proxies, including a U.S.-brokered Lebanon ceasefire in November 2024 and reduced Houthi attacks on shipping following U.S. strikes, though low-level exchanges continue in Syria and Gaza. Incoming U.S. President Trump's hawkish foreign policy, including threats of maximum pressure sanctions, may deter Iranian escalation ahead of the March 31 deadline, while IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear advancements add uncertainty to trader consensus on potential targets like Israeli assets, U.S. bases, or maritime routes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Объем
$446,809Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel persist after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowing "severe punishment" but no direct retaliation launched since. Recent weeks have seen de-escalation signals via Iranian-backed proxies, including a U.S.-brokered Lebanon ceasefire in November 2024 and reduced Houthi attacks on shipping following U.S. strikes, though low-level exchanges continue in Syria and Gaza. Incoming U.S. President Trump's hawkish foreign policy, including threats of maximum pressure sanctions, may deter Iranian escalation ahead of the March 31 deadline, while IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear advancements add uncertainty to trader consensus on potential targets like Israeli assets, U.S. bases, or maritime routes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$446,809Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Iran and Israel persist after Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowing "severe punishment" but no direct retaliation launched since. Recent weeks have seen de-escalation signals via Iranian-backed proxies, including a U.S.-brokered Lebanon ceasefire in November 2024 and reduced Houthi attacks on shipping following U.S. strikes, though low-level exchanges continue in Syria and Gaza. Incoming U.S. President Trump's hawkish foreign policy, including threats of maximum pressure sanctions, may deter Iranian escalation ahead of the March 31 deadline, while IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear advancements add uncertainty to trader consensus on potential targets like Israeli assets, U.S. bases, or maritime routes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы