Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict now in its fifth week since massive February 28 airstrikes degraded Tehran's missile stockpiles and air defenses, Iran launched ballistic missiles at central Israel on March 28—injuring civilians near Beit Shemesh and Eshtaol—while separately striking Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base, wounding 12 US troops. These limited retaliatory actions drive trader consensus on low implied probabilities for high-value targets, with Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City leading at 24% amid Iranian threats to Gulf energy infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Israel's March 27 strikes on sites like Arak nuclear reactor further constrain capabilities; Trump delayed power grid attacks to April 6 amid unconfirmed diplomacy, as Gulf states warn of existential risks before March 31 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЧто ударит по Ирану до 31 марта?
Что ударит по Ирану до 31 марта?
$450,788 Объем
Димона (Ядерный исследовательский центр имени Шимона Переса в Негеве)
2%
Бурдж-Халифа
4%
Месторождение Гавар
9%
Месторождение Сафания
9%
Нефтеперерабатывающий завод Абкаик
11%
НПЗ Аль-Зур
12%
Leviathan Field
7%
Khurais Field
13%
Рас-Танура
10%
East–West Pipeline
8%
Месторождение/перерабатывающий комплекс Хабшан
13%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
27%
$450,788 Объем
Димона (Ядерный исследовательский центр имени Шимона Переса в Негеве)
$251,325 Объем
2%
Бурдж-Халифа
$1,339 Объем
4%
Месторождение Гавар
$30,358 Объем
9%
Месторождение Сафания
$39,777 Объем
9%
Нефтеперерабатывающий завод Абкаик
$38,986 Объем
11%
НПЗ Аль-Зур
$74,086 Объем
12%
Leviathan Field
$1,106 Объем
7%
Khurais Field
$4,598 Объем
13%
Рас-Танура
$4,290 Объем
10%
East–West Pipeline
$1,306 Объем
8%
Месторождение/перерабатывающий комплекс Хабшан
$0 Объем
13%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$3,615 Объем
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict now in its fifth week since massive February 28 airstrikes degraded Tehran's missile stockpiles and air defenses, Iran launched ballistic missiles at central Israel on March 28—injuring civilians near Beit Shemesh and Eshtaol—while separately striking Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base, wounding 12 US troops. These limited retaliatory actions drive trader consensus on low implied probabilities for high-value targets, with Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City leading at 24% amid Iranian threats to Gulf energy infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Israel's March 27 strikes on sites like Arak nuclear reactor further constrain capabilities; Trump delayed power grid attacks to April 6 amid unconfirmed diplomacy, as Gulf states warn of existential risks before March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Объем
$450,788Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict now in its fifth week since massive February 28 airstrikes degraded Tehran's missile stockpiles and air defenses, Iran launched ballistic missiles at central Israel on March 28—injuring civilians near Beit Shemesh and Eshtaol—while separately striking Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base, wounding 12 US troops. These limited retaliatory actions drive trader consensus on low implied probabilities for high-value targets, with Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City leading at 24% amid Iranian threats to Gulf energy infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Israel's March 27 strikes on sites like Arak nuclear reactor further constrain capabilities; Trump delayed power grid attacks to April 6 amid unconfirmed diplomacy, as Gulf states warn of existential risks before March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$450,788Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict now in its fifth week since massive February 28 airstrikes degraded Tehran's missile stockpiles and air defenses, Iran launched ballistic missiles at central Israel on March 28—injuring civilians near Beit Shemesh and Eshtaol—while separately striking Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base, wounding 12 US troops. These limited retaliatory actions drive trader consensus on low implied probabilities for high-value targets, with Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City leading at 24% amid Iranian threats to Gulf energy infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Israel's March 27 strikes on sites like Arak nuclear reactor further constrain capabilities; Trump delayed power grid attacks to April 6 amid unconfirmed diplomacy, as Gulf states warn of existential risks before March 31 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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