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Геополитика·Иран

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Market icon
Геополитика·Иран

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

апр. 30

апр. 30

$114,760 Объем

30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$114,760 Объем

Polymarket

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$11,660 Объем

46%

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$18,719 Объем

44%

Ras Tanura

$9,247 Объем

38%

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

$10,118 Объем

37%

Al Zour Refinery

$4,199 Объем

37%

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$10,087 Объем

31%

Ruwais Refinery

$16,910 Объем

26%

Ghawar Field

$988 Объем

23%

East–West Pipeline

$5,422 Объем

22%

Safaniya Field

$4,097 Объем

20%

Khurais Field

$5,558 Объем

20%

Leviathan Field

$1,649 Объем

20%

Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)

$15,489 Объем

9%

Burj Khalifa

$616 Объем

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war ignited by coordinated strikes on Iranian facilities starting February 28, 2026, Iran has conducted six missile barrages against Israel as of March 28, injuring personnel and damaging sites, while issuing explicit threats to target US bases and Gulf energy infrastructure like Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City and Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery. On March 30, US and Israeli forces hit Iranian defense industrial sites, degrading missile production, as Tehran rejected ceasefire demands and vowed retaliation against American troops. President Trump's April 6 escalation deadline and upcoming regional summits in Pakistan could prompt further Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting trader focus on proxy or direct Gulf strikes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$114,760
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war ignited by coordinated strikes on Iranian facilities starting February 28, 2026, Iran has conducted six missile barrages against Israel as of March 28, injuring personnel and damaging sites, while issuing explicit threats to target US bases and Gulf energy infrastructure like Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City and Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery. On March 30, US and Israeli forces hit Iranian defense industrial sites, degrading missile production, as Tehran rejected ceasefire demands and vowed retaliation against American troops. President Trump's April 6 escalation deadline and upcoming regional summits in Pakistan could prompt further Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting trader focus on proxy or direct Gulf strikes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$114,760
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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«What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 14 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Habshan Field/Processing Complex» с 46%, за ним следует «Ras Laffan Industrial City» с 44%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 46¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 46%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $114.8K с момента запуска рынка Mar 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?», просмотри 14 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» — «Habshan Field/Processing Complex» с 46%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 46%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Ras Laffan Industrial City» с 44%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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