Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$53,040 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
52%
Ras Tanura
40%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
25%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Safaniya Field
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
11%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,040 Объем
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,311 Объем
52%
Ras Tanura
$4,317 Объем
40%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Объем
27%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,228 Объем
26%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,163 Объем
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 Объем
26%
Ghawar Field
$532 Объем
25%
East–West Pipeline
$4,923 Объем
20%
Khurais Field
$4,354 Объем
20%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 Объем
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,511 Объем
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$559 Объем
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,719 Объем
11%
Burj Khalifa
$330 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$53,040Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$53,040Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Iran has retaliated with seven waves of missiles targeting Israel as of March 25, alongside drone and missile strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE facilities hosting US assets. IRGC commanders have signaled readiness for major offensives against American bases and regional infrastructure, while mobilizing up to one million troops. Recent White House threats of further action underscore stalled diplomacy, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over whether Iran will expand attacks to critical Gulf oil refineries, fields, or pipelines like Ras Tanura or Ghawar before April 30 amid ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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