Amid the US-Israel-Iran war entering its fifth week since US and Israeli airstrikes initiated hostilities on February 28, trader sentiment hinges on Iran's anticipated retaliation following Israel's March 27 strikes on two Iranian nuclear facilities, a heavy water complex, steel plants, and power plants. Tehran has vowed intensified responses, potentially targeting US bases in the Gulf, Israel, or allies like the UAE—amid reports of Abu Dhabi's support for US operations—and has already launched missile and drone barrages at Israeli sites, US installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq, and Gulf airports since early March. Escalation signals persist despite Trump's mention of ceasefire advances, with a third US carrier strike group en route and Houthi missile attacks on Israel broadening fronts; resolution by April 30 tracks any verifiable Iranian military action.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$53,001 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
52%
Ras Tanura
39%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
25%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Safaniya Field
18%
Leviathan Field
17%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
11%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,001 Объем
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,298 Объем
52%
Ras Tanura
$4,317 Объем
39%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Объем
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,163 Объем
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,228 Объем
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 Объем
26%
Ghawar Field
$532 Объем
25%
East–West Pipeline
$4,923 Объем
20%
Khurais Field
$4,354 Объем
20%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 Объем
18%
Leviathan Field
$1,490 Объем
17%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$559 Объем
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,714 Объем
11%
Burj Khalifa
$330 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war entering its fifth week since US and Israeli airstrikes initiated hostilities on February 28, trader sentiment hinges on Iran's anticipated retaliation following Israel's March 27 strikes on two Iranian nuclear facilities, a heavy water complex, steel plants, and power plants. Tehran has vowed intensified responses, potentially targeting US bases in the Gulf, Israel, or allies like the UAE—amid reports of Abu Dhabi's support for US operations—and has already launched missile and drone barrages at Israeli sites, US installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq, and Gulf airports since early March. Escalation signals persist despite Trump's mention of ceasefire advances, with a third US carrier strike group en route and Houthi missile attacks on Israel broadening fronts; resolution by April 30 tracks any verifiable Iranian military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$53,001Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war entering its fifth week since US and Israeli airstrikes initiated hostilities on February 28, trader sentiment hinges on Iran's anticipated retaliation following Israel's March 27 strikes on two Iranian nuclear facilities, a heavy water complex, steel plants, and power plants. Tehran has vowed intensified responses, potentially targeting US bases in the Gulf, Israel, or allies like the UAE—amid reports of Abu Dhabi's support for US operations—and has already launched missile and drone barrages at Israeli sites, US installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq, and Gulf airports since early March. Escalation signals persist despite Trump's mention of ceasefire advances, with a third US carrier strike group en route and Houthi missile attacks on Israel broadening fronts; resolution by April 30 tracks any verifiable Iranian military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$53,001Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel-Iran war entering its fifth week since US and Israeli airstrikes initiated hostilities on February 28, trader sentiment hinges on Iran's anticipated retaliation following Israel's March 27 strikes on two Iranian nuclear facilities, a heavy water complex, steel plants, and power plants. Tehran has vowed intensified responses, potentially targeting US bases in the Gulf, Israel, or allies like the UAE—amid reports of Abu Dhabi's support for US operations—and has already launched missile and drone barrages at Israeli sites, US installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq, and Gulf airports since early March. Escalation signals persist despite Trump's mention of ceasefire advances, with a third US carrier strike group en route and Houthi missile attacks on Israel broadening fronts; resolution by April 30 tracks any verifiable Iranian military action.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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