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Политика·Трамп против Илона

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

Market icon
Политика·Трамп против Илона

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

$320,821 Объем

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$320,821 Объем

Polymarket

EV tax credit cuts

$12,755 Объем

Yes

End Tax on Tips

$40,108 Объем

Yes

Reduce tax on Social Security

$234,865 Объем

No

Debt Ceiling lifted/abolished

$14,254 Объем

Yes

Extension of income tax cut for High Earners

$7,193 Объем

Yes

SALT cap increase

$11,647 Объем

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes on tips earned by workers in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on tips remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax on tips. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal taxes on Social Security benefits in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on Social Security benefits remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal income tax on Social Security benefits. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly extends the current 37% top individual income tax rate set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly includes an increase or elimination of the cap to the state and local tax deduction on any class of taxpayer earning above $10,000 in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles.

This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Объем
$320,821
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2025
Открытие рынка
May 14, 2025, 12:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Предложенный исход: Yes

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes on tips earned by workers in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on tips remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax on tips. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal taxes on Social Security benefits in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on Social Security benefits remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal income tax on Social Security benefits. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly extends the current 37% top individual income tax rate set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly includes an increase or elimination of the cap to the state and local tax deduction on any class of taxpayer earning above $10,000 in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«What will be in the next reconciliation bill?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «EV tax credit cuts» с 100%, за ним следует «End Tax on Tips» с 100%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «What will be in the next reconciliation bill?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $320.8K с момента запуска рынка May 14, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «What will be in the next reconciliation bill?», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «What will be in the next reconciliation bill?» — «EV tax credit cuts» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «End Tax on Tips» с 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «What will be in the next reconciliation bill?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.