Trader consensus prices an 82.5% chance against the US gaining physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy and the formidable barriers to a military seizure operation. US-Iran indirect talks collapsed in late February without agreement on stockpile transfer, despite US demands for Iran's 440kg of 60% highly enriched uranium—now likely buried in Isfahan tunnels per satellite analysis and IAEA assessments lacking site access since June 2025 strikes. This week, the US military briefed President Trump on a high-risk special operations plan involving excavation and runway construction deep in hostile territory, but experts deem it complex and protracted, while Trump has signaled deprioritization amid planned troop withdrawals, reducing near-term prospects for confirmed custody.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
$211,647 Объем
$211,647 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
$211,647 Объем
$211,647 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 82.5% chance against the US gaining physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy and the formidable barriers to a military seizure operation. US-Iran indirect talks collapsed in late February without agreement on stockpile transfer, despite US demands for Iran's 440kg of 60% highly enriched uranium—now likely buried in Isfahan tunnels per satellite analysis and IAEA assessments lacking site access since June 2025 strikes. This week, the US military briefed President Trump on a high-risk special operations plan involving excavation and runway construction deep in hostile territory, but experts deem it complex and protracted, while Trump has signaled deprioritization amid planned troop withdrawals, reducing near-term prospects for confirmed custody.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$211,647Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 82.5% chance against the US gaining physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy and the formidable barriers to a military seizure operation. US-Iran indirect talks collapsed in late February without agreement on stockpile transfer, despite US demands for Iran's 440kg of 60% highly enriched uranium—now likely buried in Isfahan tunnels per satellite analysis and IAEA assessments lacking site access since June 2025 strikes. This week, the US military briefed President Trump on a high-risk special operations plan involving excavation and runway construction deep in hostile territory, but experts deem it complex and protracted, while Trump has signaled deprioritization amid planned troop withdrawals, reducing near-term prospects for confirmed custody.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$211,647Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 82.5% chance against the US gaining physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy and the formidable barriers to a military seizure operation. US-Iran indirect talks collapsed in late February without agreement on stockpile transfer, despite US demands for Iran's 440kg of 60% highly enriched uranium—now likely buried in Isfahan tunnels per satellite analysis and IAEA assessments lacking site access since June 2025 strikes. This week, the US military briefed President Trump on a high-risk special operations plan involving excavation and runway construction deep in hostile territory, but experts deem it complex and protracted, while Trump has signaled deprioritization amid planned troop withdrawals, reducing near-term prospects for confirmed custody.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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