Market icon

США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?

Market icon

США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?

Ended: Mar 31

Feb 28

Ended: Mar 31

Feb 28

До марта (ET) 100.0%

1 марта <1%

2 марта <1%

3 марта <1%

Polymarket

$19,084,082 Объем

До марта (ET) 100.0%

1 марта <1%

2 марта <1%

3 марта <1%

Polymarket

$19,084,082 Объем

До марта (ET)

$775,328 Объем

Да

1 марта

$3,313,911 Объем

Нет

2 марта

$1,842,438 Объем

Нет

3 марта

$1,011,021 Объем

Нет

4 марта

$789,233 Объем

Нет

5 марта

$646,979 Объем

Нет

6 марта

$673,324 Объем

Нет

7 марта

$561,395 Объем

Нет

8 марта

$562,546 Объем

Нет

9 марта

$515,450 Объем

Нет

10 марта

$418,467 Объем

Нет

11 марта

$377,029 Объем

Нет

12 марта

$410,437 Объем

Нет

13 марта

$373,247 Объем

Нет

14 марта

$308,735 Объем

Нет

15 марта

$412,715 Объем

Нет

16 марта

$342,800 Объем

Нет

17 марта

$309,066 Объем

Нет

18 марта

$329,328 Объем

Нет

19 марта

$360,907 Объем

Нет

20 марта

$396,814 Объем

Нет

21 марта

$315,067 Объем

Нет

22 марта

$361,261 Объем

Нет

23 марта

$343,755 Объем

Нет

24 марта

$313,689 Объем

Нет

25 марта

$302,780 Объем

Нет

26 марта

$314,445 Объем

Нет

27 марта

$249,783 Объем

Нет

28 марта

$260,936 Объем

Нет

29 марта

$337,810 Объем

Нет

30 марта

$412,510 Объем

Нет

31 марта

$796,198 Объем

Нет

Нет удара до 31 марта

$344,680 Объем

Нет

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$19,084,082
Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Feb 9, 2026, 11:52 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Да

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "До марта (ET)" at 100%, followed by "1 марта" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" has generated $19.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" is "До марта (ET)" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1 марта" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.