Market icon

США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?

Market icon

США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?

Ended: Jan 31

Ended: Jan 31

Нет удара до 31 января 100.0%

12 января <1%

13 января <1%

14 января <1%

Polymarket

$28,513,815 Объем

Нет удара до 31 января 100.0%

12 января <1%

13 января <1%

14 января <1%

Polymarket

$28,513,815 Объем

12 января

$174,396 Объем

Нет

13 января

$352,575 Объем

Нет

14 января

$1,357,455 Объем

Нет

15 января

$721,329 Объем

Нет

16 января

$851,047 Объем

Нет

17 января

$509,296 Объем

Нет

18 января

$569,914 Объем

Нет

19 января

$1,188,559 Объем

Нет

20 января

$1,015,021 Объем

Нет

21 января

$1,260,514 Объем

Нет

22 января

$1,295,692 Объем

Нет

23 января

$2,137,803 Объем

Нет

24 января

$1,460,613 Объем

Нет

25 января

$1,551,909 Объем

Нет

26 января

$1,541,870 Объем

Нет

27 января

$1,514,603 Объем

Нет

28 января

$1,311,211 Объем

Нет

29 января

$1,637,680 Объем

Нет

30 января

$1,729,141 Объем

Нет

31 января

$2,620,126 Объем

Нет

Нет удара до 31 января

$3,713,061 Объем

Да

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$28,513,815
Дата окончания
Jan 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Нет удара до 31 января" at 100%, followed by "12 января" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" has generated $28.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" is "Нет удара до 31 января" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12 января" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.