Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of congressional bills, executive orders, or official proposals to reinstate conscription despite persistent military recruitment shortfalls addressed via pay raises, signing bonuses, and marketing campaigns. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY2025, signed in December 2024, enhanced Selective Service registration enforcement—particularly for women—but omitted any draft provisions, signaling bipartisan reluctance amid post-Vietnam political toxicity. Early FY2026 NDAA debates show no momentum for change, with the all-volunteer force holding since 1973; only major geopolitical escalation, like widespread mobilization needs, could alter this low-risk outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$69,625 Объем
$69,625 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
$69,625 Объем
$69,625 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Объем
$69,625Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$69,625Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of congressional bills, executive orders, or official proposals to reinstate conscription despite persistent military recruitment shortfalls addressed via pay raises, signing bonuses, and marketing campaigns. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY2025, signed in December 2024, enhanced Selective Service registration enforcement—particularly for women—but omitted any draft provisions, signaling bipartisan reluctance amid post-Vietnam political toxicity. Early FY2026 NDAA debates show no momentum for change, with the all-volunteer force holding since 1973; only major geopolitical escalation, like widespread mobilization needs, could alter this low-risk outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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