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Геополитика·Трамп

Войска США входят в Иран через..?

Market icon
Геополитика·Трамп

Войска США входят в Иран через..?

$102,271,529 Объем

3 мар. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$102,271,529 Объем

Polymarket

31 марта

$71,667,886 Объем

<1%

30 апреля

$19,745,956 Объем

67%

31 декабря

$8,784,406 Объем

77%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Israeli war with Iran launched February 28 via widespread airstrikes achieving air superiority, traders price 66% odds of US ground forces entering Iranian territory by April 30, reflecting massive recent deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and over 10,000 elite troops to the Gulf amid depleted air targets. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth described coming days as "decisive" without ruling out boots on the ground, while President Trump vowed continued attacks after three US service member deaths early March. Speculation centers on seizing Kharg Island oil hub, with Iran's threats of retaliation heightening risks; no confirmed terrestrial entry has occurred, pending potential executive orders or diplomatic shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$102,271,529
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Israeli war with Iran launched February 28 via widespread airstrikes achieving air superiority, traders price 66% odds of US ground forces entering Iranian territory by April 30, reflecting massive recent deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and over 10,000 elite troops to the Gulf amid depleted air targets. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth described coming days as "decisive" without ruling out boots on the ground, while President Trump vowed continued attacks after three US service member deaths early March. Speculation centers on seizing Kharg Island oil hub, with Iran's threats of retaliation heightening risks; no confirmed terrestrial entry has occurred, pending potential executive orders or diplomatic shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$102,271,529
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Войска США входят в Иран через..?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря» с 77%, за ним следует «30 апреля» с 67%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 77¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 77%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

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Чтобы торговать на «Войска США входят в Иран через..?», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Войска США входят в Иран через..?» — «31 декабря» с 77%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 77%. Следующий ближайший исход — «30 апреля» с 67%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Войска США входят в Иран через..?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.