Name: Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?
Start: 2024-10-25T15:49:11.991393Z
End: 2024-11-04T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the polling margin between Trump and Harris on November 4.

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is Trump +2.5 or more percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Trump by 2.5+

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +2.0 (inclusive) and Trump +2.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Trump by 2-2.4

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +1.5 (inclusive) and Trump +1.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Trump by 1.5-1.9

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +1.0 (inclusive) and Trump +1.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Trump by 1-1.4

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +0.5 (inclusive) and Trump +0.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Trump by 0.5-0.9 

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +0.1 (inclusive) and Trump +0.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Trump by 0.1-0.4

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Harris 0.0 (inclusive) and Harris +0.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Harris by 0-0.4

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Harris 0.5 (inclusive) and Harris +0.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Harris by 0.5-0.9

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Harris 1.0 (inclusive) and Harris +1.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Harris by 1.0-1.4+

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Harris 1.5 (inclusive) and Harris +1.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Harris by 1.5-1.9

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Harris 2.0 (inclusive) and Harris +2.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Harris by 2-2.4

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is Harris +2.5 or more percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

Harris by 2.5+

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Поддержит ли Трамп Стива Хилтона на выборах губернатора Калифорнии 2 ноября 2026 года по восточному времени?

Donald Trump threatened to sue the New York Times over a Times/Siena poll it released which showed Trump’s favorability rating dropping (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115939791935000343)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump files a new lawsuit against The New York Times Company, Siena University, or any of their subsidiaries, executives, employees, or pollsters or files a court document that adds a new legal claim to an existing lawsuit against any of these parties, in connection with New York Times/Siena opinion polling about Trump, by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The lawsuit or addition must be directly related to the New York Times’ polling about Trump to qualify.

An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump sue NYT/Siena over polling by Feb 28?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-34?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Потеряют ли республиканцы место в Палате представителей в каком-либо штате, который Трамп выиграет в 2024 году?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Поддержит ли Трамп какого-либо кандидата в президенты до 2027 года?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Возьмёт ли Такер Карлсон интервью у Трампа до 28 февраля?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Потеряют ли республиканцы место в Сенате США в каком-либо штате, который Трамп выиграет в 2024 году?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Поддержит ли Трамп JD Вэнса на пост президента до 2027 года?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-09?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы выборы в Сенат Техаса в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-15?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Выиграет ли Джей Ди Ванс на президентских выборах США в 2028 году?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-32?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу NY-04?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы гонку за пост губернатора Техаса в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-28?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-35?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Нилс Уокер кандидатом в губернаторы от республиканцев по округу TX-30?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.


Республиканцы одерживают триумф с супербольшинством в Сенате на промежуточных выборах?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Выиграют ли республиканцы сенатские выборы во Флориде в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу MI-04?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу NV-04?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris or her legal or social media representatives (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Объявит ли Камала Харрис о выдвижении своей кандидатуры на пост президента в 2028 году до 30 июня?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Выиграют ли демократы президентские выборы США 2028 года?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Марк Тейшейра кандидатом от республиканцев по округу TX-21?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Будет ли Джон Картер кандидатом в губернаторы от республиканцев по округу TX-31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Поддержит ли Трамп Марию Корину Мачадо на выборах президента Венесуэлы в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Победят ли республиканцы на выборах в Сенат Огайо в 2026 году?

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively.  Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count.

Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count.

AI-generated images or video will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.

Сделает ли Трамп снова неприличный жест в 2026 году?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу OH-09?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Поддержит ли Берни Джеймса Таларико на выборах в Сенат Техаса до 2 ноября 2026 года по восточному времени?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-17?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу OR-05?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по 18-му округу штата Нью-Йорк?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

Trump by 2.5+
$25,883 Объем
No

Trump by 2-2.4
$25,297 Объем
No

Trump by 1.5-1.9
$21,741 Объем
No

Trump by 1-1.4
$24,215 Объем
No

Trump by 0.5-0.9
$17,151 Объем
No

Trump by 0.1-0.4
$98,547 Объем
Yes

Harris by 0-0.4
$124,696 Объем
No

Harris by 0.5-0.9
$21,703 Объем
No

Harris by 1.0-1.4+
$16,451 Объем
No

Harris by 1.5-1.9
$35,709 Объем
No

Harris by 2-2.4
$18,889 Объем
No

Harris by 2.5+
$18,345 Объем
No

Контекст Рынка

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

Правила

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

Контекст Рынка

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

О событии

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

Trump by 2.5+$25,883 ОбъемNo

Trump by 2-2.4$25,297 ОбъемNo

Trump by 1.5-1.9$21,741 ОбъемNo

Trump by 1-1.4$24,215 ОбъемNo

Trump by 0.5-0.9 $17,151 ОбъемNo

Trump by 0.1-0.4$98,547 ОбъемYes

Harris by 0-0.4$124,696 ОбъемNo

Harris by 0.5-0.9$21,703 ОбъемNo

Harris by 1.0-1.4+$16,451 ОбъемNo

Harris by 1.5-1.9$35,709 ОбъемNo

Harris by 2-2.4$18,889 ОбъемNo

Harris by 2.5+$18,345 ОбъемNo

Контекст Рынка

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

Правила

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

Контекст Рынка

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

О событии

Trump by 2.5+
$25,883 Объем
No

Trump by 2-2.4
$25,297 Объем
No

Trump by 1.5-1.9
$21,741 Объем
No

Trump by 1-1.4
$24,215 Объем
No

Trump by 0.5-0.9
$17,151 Объем
No

Trump by 0.1-0.4
$98,547 Объем
Yes

Harris by 0-0.4
$124,696 Объем
No

Harris by 0.5-0.9
$21,703 Объем
No

Harris by 1.0-1.4+
$16,451 Объем
No

Harris by 1.5-1.9
$35,709 Объем
No

Harris by 2-2.4
$18,889 Объем
No

Harris by 2.5+
$18,345 Объем
No