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Trump positive favorability on March 1?

Market icon

Trump positive favorability on March 1?

Ended: Mar 1, 2025

Ended: Mar 1, 2025

<1% chance
Polymarket

$113,854 Объем

<1% chance
Polymarket

$113,854 Объем

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on March 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.

The favorability rating for March 1 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for March 1 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered.

Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after March 1, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by March 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to March 1, 2025.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$113,854
Дата окончания
Mar 1, 2025
Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2025, 5:49 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on March 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability rating for March 1 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for March 1 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after March 1, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by March 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to March 1, 2025. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Предложенный исход: No

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: No

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on March 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.

The favorability rating for March 1 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for March 1 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered.

Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after March 1, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by March 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to March 1, 2025.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$113,854
Дата окончания
Mar 1, 2025
Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2025, 5:49 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on March 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability rating for March 1 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for March 1 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after March 1, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by March 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to March 1, 2025. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Предложенный исход: No

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: No

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump positive favorability on March 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump positive favorability on March 1?" has generated $113.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump positive favorability on March 1?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Trump positive favorability on March 1?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Trump positive favorability on March 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.