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Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время SOTU?

Market icon

Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время SOTU?

Да

<1% chance
Polymarket

$158,110 Объем

Да

<1% chance
Polymarket

$158,110 Объем

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump definitively announces that the United States will initiate military action against Iran during his 2026 State of the Union address scheduled for Feb 24. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, Trump must clearly and definitively state that military force will be used against Iran. Statements that military action is under consideration, warnings, threats, or conditional remarks will not qualify.

Announcements that the U.S. will assist Israel in carrying out strikes or any other action which does constitute direct kinetic military operations will not alone qualify.

Announcements from Trump that the U.S. will strike Iran which Trump refutes or qualifies during the address such that the original statement is no longer understood as definitive will not qualify.

The announcement must occur during the official 2026 State of the Union address.

If the 2026 state of the union does not occur by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be video of the address.
Объем
$158,110
Дата окончания
Feb 25, 2026
Открытие рынка
Feb 24, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump definitively announces that the United States will initiate military action against Iran during his 2026 State of the Union address scheduled for Feb 24. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Trump must clearly and definitively state that military force will be used against Iran. Statements that military action is under consideration, warnings, threats, or conditional remarks will not qualify. Announcements that the U.S. will assist Israel in carrying out strikes or any other action which does constitute direct kinetic military operations will not alone qualify. Announcements from Trump that the U.S. will strike Iran which Trump refutes or qualifies during the address such that the original statement is no longer understood as definitive will not qualify. The announcement must occur during the official 2026 State of the Union address. If the 2026 state of the union does not occur by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be video of the address.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump definitively announces that the United States will initiate military action against Iran during his 2026 State of the Union address scheduled for Feb 24. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, Trump must clearly and definitively state that military force will be used against Iran. Statements that military action is under consideration, warnings, threats, or conditional remarks will not qualify.

Announcements that the U.S. will assist Israel in carrying out strikes or any other action which does constitute direct kinetic military operations will not alone qualify.

Announcements from Trump that the U.S. will strike Iran which Trump refutes or qualifies during the address such that the original statement is no longer understood as definitive will not qualify.

The announcement must occur during the official 2026 State of the Union address.

If the 2026 state of the union does not occur by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be video of the address.
Объем
$158,110
Дата окончания
Feb 25, 2026
Открытие рынка
Feb 24, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump definitively announces that the United States will initiate military action against Iran during his 2026 State of the Union address scheduled for Feb 24. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Trump must clearly and definitively state that military force will be used against Iran. Statements that military action is under consideration, warnings, threats, or conditional remarks will not qualify. Announcements that the U.S. will assist Israel in carrying out strikes or any other action which does constitute direct kinetic military operations will not alone qualify. Announcements from Trump that the U.S. will strike Iran which Trump refutes or qualifies during the address such that the original statement is no longer understood as definitive will not qualify. The announcement must occur during the official 2026 State of the Union address. If the 2026 state of the union does not occur by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be video of the address.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время SOTU?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время обращения "О положении страны"?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время SOTU?" has generated $158.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время SOTU?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время SOTU?" is "Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время обращения "О положении страны"?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Трамп объявляет о военных действиях против Ирана во время SOTU?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.