Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, maintains an 87% implied probability in the São Paulo race due to consistent leads in May 2026 polls from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Vox Brasil, where he registers 45–48% in first-round scenarios against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 33–36%. His position stems from approval ratings above 60% tied to infrastructure projects, economic management, and cross-party appeal in the state’s largest electorate. Haddad trails as the primary opposition contender but has shown limited gains in the interior. Kim Kataguiri of Missão, polling in single digits, could fragment conservative support if he enters after his planned June announcement, while Márcio França and Erika Hilton register negligible backing. Traders’ consensus reflects these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency ahead of the October 4 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTarcísio de Freitas 87%
Ким Катагири 9.8%
Fernando Haddad 3.6%
Márcio França <1%
$81,717 Объем
$81,717 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Tarcísio de Freitas
87%
Ким Катагири
10%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Márcio França
<1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 87%
Ким Катагири 9.8%
Fernando Haddad 3.6%
Márcio França <1%
$81,717 Объем
$81,717 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Tarcísio de Freitas
$27,967 Объем
87%
Ким Катагири
$15,187 Объем
10%
Fernando Haddad
$23,464 Объем
4%
Márcio França
$6,806 Объем
<1%
Erika Hilton
$8,293 Объем
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, maintains an 87% implied probability in the São Paulo race due to consistent leads in May 2026 polls from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Vox Brasil, where he registers 45–48% in first-round scenarios against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 33–36%. His position stems from approval ratings above 60% tied to infrastructure projects, economic management, and cross-party appeal in the state’s largest electorate. Haddad trails as the primary opposition contender but has shown limited gains in the interior. Kim Kataguiri of Missão, polling in single digits, could fragment conservative support if he enters after his planned June announcement, while Márcio França and Erika Hilton register negligible backing. Traders’ consensus reflects these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency ahead of the October 4 vote.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Объем
$81,717Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, maintains an 87% implied probability in the São Paulo race due to consistent leads in May 2026 polls from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Vox Brasil, where he registers 45–48% in first-round scenarios against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 33–36%. His position stems from approval ratings above 60% tied to infrastructure projects, economic management, and cross-party appeal in the state’s largest electorate. Haddad trails as the primary opposition contender but has shown limited gains in the interior. Kim Kataguiri of Missão, polling in single digits, could fragment conservative support if he enters after his planned June announcement, while Márcio França and Erika Hilton register negligible backing. Traders’ consensus reflects these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency ahead of the October 4 vote.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$81,717Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, maintains an 87% implied probability in the São Paulo race due to consistent leads in May 2026 polls from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Vox Brasil, where he registers 45–48% in first-round scenarios against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 33–36%. His position stems from approval ratings above 60% tied to infrastructure projects, economic management, and cross-party appeal in the state’s largest electorate. Haddad trails as the primary opposition contender but has shown limited gains in the interior. Kim Kataguiri of Missão, polling in single digits, could fragment conservative support if he enters after his planned June announcement, while Márcio França and Erika Hilton register negligible backing. Traders’ consensus reflects these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency ahead of the October 4 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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