Brazil's central bank delivered a fourth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14.00% at its August 5 Copom meeting, aligning with consensus forecasts and leaving the door open for further gradual easing into September. Trader positioning at 85% implied probability for another quarter-point reduction reflects cooling domestic demand, resilient but moderating economic activity, and a slightly improved near-term inflation trajectory despite headline readings remaining above the 3% target. Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5%, upside risks from global oil prices amid Middle East tensions, and the committee's emphasis on maintaining a restrictive stance to anchor expectations have capped odds of a 50-basis-point move at under 2% while supporting the slim 14% chance of a pause. September's decision will hinge on incoming CPI prints and Focus survey revisions ahead of the policy meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСнижение на 25 б.п. 85.0%
Без изменений 14%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 1.8%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$92,159 Объем
$92,159 Объем
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
<1%
Без изменений
14%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
85%
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 85.0%
Без изменений 14%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 1.8%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$92,159 Объем
$92,159 Объем
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
<1%
Без изменений
14%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
85%
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
2%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's central bank delivered a fourth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14.00% at its August 5 Copom meeting, aligning with consensus forecasts and leaving the door open for further gradual easing into September. Trader positioning at 85% implied probability for another quarter-point reduction reflects cooling domestic demand, resilient but moderating economic activity, and a slightly improved near-term inflation trajectory despite headline readings remaining above the 3% target. Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5%, upside risks from global oil prices amid Middle East tensions, and the committee's emphasis on maintaining a restrictive stance to anchor expectations have capped odds of a 50-basis-point move at under 2% while supporting the slim 14% chance of a pause. September's decision will hinge on incoming CPI prints and Focus survey revisions ahead of the policy meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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