Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Manuel Saavedra at 94% implied probability to win the Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election, driven by official results from Bolivia's December 2024 vote where he secured 51% of the tally for his MAS party, well ahead of Angélica Sosa's 29% for Comunidad Ciudadana. The Tribunal Supremo Electoral's recent proclamation of Saavedra as mayor-elect solidifies this lead, reflecting validated vote counts amid minimal reported irregularities. Sosa's 4.9% odds capture slim risks from potential legal challenges or recounts, though historical precedents in Bolivian subnational races show such reversals are rare post-proclamation, with traders pricing in high confidence absent major disruptions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Санта-Крус-де-ла-Сьерра-Майор (Боливия)
Победитель выборов в Санта-Крус-де-ла-Сьерра-Майор (Боливия)
Мануэль Сааведра 93.9%
Анхелика Соса 4.6%
Ингрид Росарио Шамисседдин <1%
Джонни Фернандес <1%
$1,106,938 Объем
$1,106,938 Объем

Мануэль Сааведра
94%

Анхелика Соса
5%

Ингрид Росарио Шамисседдин
<1%

Джонни Фернандес
<1%

Хосе Гари Аньес
<1%

Висенте Куэльяр
<1%

Су Хён Чун
<1%

Оскар Варгас
<1%

Лусиано Негрете
<1%

Феликс Орос
<1%

Альфредо Соларес
<1%
Мануэль Сааведра 93.9%
Анхелика Соса 4.6%
Ингрид Росарио Шамисседдин <1%
Джонни Фернандес <1%
$1,106,938 Объем
$1,106,938 Объем

Мануэль Сааведра
94%

Анхелика Соса
5%

Ингрид Росарио Шамисседдин
<1%

Джонни Фернандес
<1%

Хосе Гари Аньес
<1%

Висенте Куэльяр
<1%

Су Хён Чун
<1%

Оскар Варгас
<1%

Лусиано Негрете
<1%

Феликс Орос
<1%

Альфредо Соларес
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Manuel Saavedra at 94% implied probability to win the Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election, driven by official results from Bolivia's December 2024 vote where he secured 51% of the tally for his MAS party, well ahead of Angélica Sosa's 29% for Comunidad Ciudadana. The Tribunal Supremo Electoral's recent proclamation of Saavedra as mayor-elect solidifies this lead, reflecting validated vote counts amid minimal reported irregularities. Sosa's 4.9% odds capture slim risks from potential legal challenges or recounts, though historical precedents in Bolivian subnational races show such reversals are rare post-proclamation, with traders pricing in high confidence absent major disruptions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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