Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 82% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through April 12 despite escalated US-Iran tensions, including President Trump's announcement of a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed ceasefire talks in Islamabad. Hormuz shipping traffic remains severely disrupted—far below the IMF Portwatch 7-day average threshold of 60 arrivals for normalization—while WTI crude oil trades around $97 per barrel, well short of the $200 high required. No US drone, missile, or airstrikes have targeted Cuban soil amid rhetorical warnings; no incarcerations stem from post-December 2025 Epstein file disclosures; and Federal Reserve markets imply 98% odds of no rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. With 18 days left, these specific high-threshold conditions appear unlikely to materialize.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNothing Ever Happens: April
Nothing Ever Happens: April
Nothing
$15,540 Объем
$15,540 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
Nothing
$15,540 Объем
$15,540 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" at 82% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through April 12 despite escalated US-Iran tensions, including President Trump's announcement of a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed ceasefire talks in Islamabad. Hormuz shipping traffic remains severely disrupted—far below the IMF Portwatch 7-day average threshold of 60 arrivals for normalization—while WTI crude oil trades around $97 per barrel, well short of the $200 high required. No US drone, missile, or airstrikes have targeted Cuban soil amid rhetorical warnings; no incarcerations stem from post-December 2025 Epstein file disclosures; and Federal Reserve markets imply 98% odds of no rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. With 18 days left, these specific high-threshold conditions appear unlikely to materialize.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf
Открытие рынка: Apr 7, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$15,540Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" at 82% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through April 12 despite escalated US-Iran tensions, including President Trump's announcement of a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed ceasefire talks in Islamabad. Hormuz shipping traffic remains severely disrupted—far below the IMF Portwatch 7-day average threshold of 60 arrivals for normalization—while WTI crude oil trades around $97 per barrel, well short of the $200 high required. No US drone, missile, or airstrikes have targeted Cuban soil amid rhetorical warnings; no incarcerations stem from post-December 2025 Epstein file disclosures; and Federal Reserve markets imply 98% odds of no rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. With 18 days left, these specific high-threshold conditions appear unlikely to materialize.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf
Объем
$15,540Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 82% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through April 12 despite escalated US-Iran tensions, including President Trump's announcement of a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed ceasefire talks in Islamabad. Hormuz shipping traffic remains severely disrupted—far below the IMF Portwatch 7-day average threshold of 60 arrivals for normalization—while WTI crude oil trades around $97 per barrel, well short of the $200 high required. No US drone, missile, or airstrikes have targeted Cuban soil amid rhetorical warnings; no incarcerations stem from post-December 2025 Epstein file disclosures; and Federal Reserve markets imply 98% odds of no rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. With 18 days left, these specific high-threshold conditions appear unlikely to materialize.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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