US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, industrial sites, and Tehran intensified on March 28, with reports of explosions in Isfahan, sustaining the conflict into its fifth week amid Iranian missile barrages wounding over 300 US troops. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the operation could conclude in weeks via diplomacy, while Iran reviews a US proposal but warns of escalation; Israel vows further intensification absent a ceasefire. Traders' 95.5% consensus on action persisting through March 31 reflects unrelenting military exchanges and stalled talks, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, unilateral de-escalation, or UN-mediated truce could shift odds dramatically.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВоенные действия до 31 марта 95%
31 марта 1.8%
30 марта <1%
29 марта <1%
$2,654,281 Объем
$2,654,281 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
29 марта
<1%
30 марта
1%
31 марта
2%
Военные действия до 31 марта
95%
Военные действия до 31 марта 95%
31 марта 1.8%
30 марта <1%
29 марта <1%
$2,654,281 Объем
$2,654,281 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
29 марта
$285,297 Объем
<1%
30 марта
$282,146 Объем
1%
31 марта
$370,962 Объем
2%
Военные действия до 31 марта
$567,989 Объем
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, industrial sites, and Tehran intensified on March 28, with reports of explosions in Isfahan, sustaining the conflict into its fifth week amid Iranian missile barrages wounding over 300 US troops. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the operation could conclude in weeks via diplomacy, while Iran reviews a US proposal but warns of escalation; Israel vows further intensification absent a ceasefire. Traders' 95.5% consensus on action persisting through March 31 reflects unrelenting military exchanges and stalled talks, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, unilateral de-escalation, or UN-mediated truce could shift odds dramatically.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Объем
$2,654,281Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, industrial sites, and Tehran intensified on March 28, with reports of explosions in Isfahan, sustaining the conflict into its fifth week amid Iranian missile barrages wounding over 300 US troops. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the operation could conclude in weeks via diplomacy, while Iran reviews a US proposal but warns of escalation; Israel vows further intensification absent a ceasefire. Traders' 95.5% consensus on action persisting through March 31 reflects unrelenting military exchanges and stalled talks, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, unilateral de-escalation, or UN-mediated truce could shift odds dramatically.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,654,281Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, industrial sites, and Tehran intensified on March 28, with reports of explosions in Isfahan, sustaining the conflict into its fifth week amid Iranian missile barrages wounding over 300 US troops. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the operation could conclude in weeks via diplomacy, while Iran reviews a US proposal but warns of escalation; Israel vows further intensification absent a ceasefire. Traders' 95.5% consensus on action persisting through March 31 reflects unrelenting military exchanges and stalled talks, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, unilateral de-escalation, or UN-mediated truce could shift odds dramatically.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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