US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent hits on nuclear sites and production facilities in Tehran and Isfahan as of March 27, driving trader consensus to 95.5% that military action persists through March 31. Iranian-backed Houthis escalated yesterday with a missile attack on Israel—the first from Yemen since the war's February 28 onset—while over 300 US troops have been wounded in retaliatory strikes. Ceasefire talks falter, with Iran dismissing a US proposal on March 25 and hardening demands for compensation and guarantees against future action, despite Trump's pause on energy targets. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation signals could shift odds, though ongoing Operation Epic Fury shows no signs of abating.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВоенные действия до 31 марта 96%
31 марта 2.2%
30 марта 1.3%
29 марта <1%
$2,733,322 Объем
$2,733,322 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
29 марта
1%
30 марта
1%
31 марта
2%
Военные действия до 31 марта
96%
Военные действия до 31 марта 96%
31 марта 2.2%
30 марта 1.3%
29 марта <1%
$2,733,322 Объем
$2,733,322 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
29 марта
$300,340 Объем
1%
30 марта
$287,923 Объем
1%
31 марта
$414,057 Объем
2%
Военные действия до 31 марта
$583,154 Объем
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent hits on nuclear sites and production facilities in Tehran and Isfahan as of March 27, driving trader consensus to 95.5% that military action persists through March 31. Iranian-backed Houthis escalated yesterday with a missile attack on Israel—the first from Yemen since the war's February 28 onset—while over 300 US troops have been wounded in retaliatory strikes. Ceasefire talks falter, with Iran dismissing a US proposal on March 25 and hardening demands for compensation and guarantees against future action, despite Trump's pause on energy targets. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation signals could shift odds, though ongoing Operation Epic Fury shows no signs of abating.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Объем
$2,733,322Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent hits on nuclear sites and production facilities in Tehran and Isfahan as of March 27, driving trader consensus to 95.5% that military action persists through March 31. Iranian-backed Houthis escalated yesterday with a missile attack on Israel—the first from Yemen since the war's February 28 onset—while over 300 US troops have been wounded in retaliatory strikes. Ceasefire talks falter, with Iran dismissing a US proposal on March 25 and hardening demands for compensation and guarantees against future action, despite Trump's pause on energy targets. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation signals could shift odds, though ongoing Operation Epic Fury shows no signs of abating.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,733,322Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military infrastructure, including recent hits on nuclear sites and production facilities in Tehran and Isfahan as of March 27, driving trader consensus to 95.5% that military action persists through March 31. Iranian-backed Houthis escalated yesterday with a missile attack on Israel—the first from Yemen since the war's February 28 onset—while over 300 US troops have been wounded in retaliatory strikes. Ceasefire talks falter, with Iran dismissing a US proposal on March 25 and hardening demands for compensation and guarantees against future action, despite Trump's pause on energy targets. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation signals could shift odds, though ongoing Operation Epic Fury shows no signs of abating.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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