Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for March US monthly inflation at ≥0.8%, reflecting bets on a hotter-than-expected CPI print amid sticky price pressures. Primary drivers include March's blockbuster 303,000 nonfarm payrolls—far exceeding 200,000 consensus—coupled with 0.3% monthly wage growth and steady 3.8% unemployment, signaling persistent labor market strength that fuels inflation. Rising energy costs from oil above $85/barrel and elevated shelter inflation (up 0.4% MoM in February) further bolster upside risks, diverging from economist forecasts clustering at 0.3% MoM headline CPI. Lower outcomes like ≤0.3% carry just 0.7% odds, with the April 10 release poised to sway Fed rate cut expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≥0,8% 88%
0.7% 8%
0.6% 1.2%
≤0.3% <1%
$279,098 Объем
$279,098 Объем
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
<1%
0.5%
1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
8%
≥0,8%
88%
≥0,8% 88%
0.7% 8%
0.6% 1.2%
≤0.3% <1%
$279,098 Объем
$279,098 Объем
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
<1%
0.5%
1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
8%
≥0,8%
88%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for March US monthly inflation at ≥0.8%, reflecting bets on a hotter-than-expected CPI print amid sticky price pressures. Primary drivers include March's blockbuster 303,000 nonfarm payrolls—far exceeding 200,000 consensus—coupled with 0.3% monthly wage growth and steady 3.8% unemployment, signaling persistent labor market strength that fuels inflation. Rising energy costs from oil above $85/barrel and elevated shelter inflation (up 0.4% MoM in February) further bolster upside risks, diverging from economist forecasts clustering at 0.3% MoM headline CPI. Lower outcomes like ≤0.3% carry just 0.7% odds, with the April 10 release poised to sway Fed rate cut expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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