Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.9% implied probability for March US annual CPI at or above 3.4%, reflecting economist forecasts clustering around that level amid sticky core inflation pressures. February's headline 3.2% print undershot expectations but showed persistent shelter and services costs, while March's blockbuster nonfarm payrolls of 303,000 jobs and rising wage growth fueled reacceleration fears, tempering hopes for sub-3.3% outcomes. Robust consumer spending and elevated energy prices further support higher brackets like 3.3% (25.4% odds), with traders eyeing today's CPI release for confirmation—any upside surprise could solidify Fed rate cut delays into summer.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≥3,4% 48.9%
3,3% 25.4%
3,2% 11%
3,1% 8.6%
$701,187 Объем
$701,187 Объем
≤2,6%
1%
2,7%
1%
2,8%
1%
2,9%
2%
3,0%
2%
3,1%
9%
3,2%
11%
3,3%
25%
≥3,4%
49%
≥3,4% 48.9%
3,3% 25.4%
3,2% 11%
3,1% 8.6%
$701,187 Объем
$701,187 Объем
≤2,6%
1%
2,7%
1%
2,8%
1%
2,9%
2%
3,0%
2%
3,1%
9%
3,2%
11%
3,3%
25%
≥3,4%
49%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.9% implied probability for March US annual CPI at or above 3.4%, reflecting economist forecasts clustering around that level amid sticky core inflation pressures. February's headline 3.2% print undershot expectations but showed persistent shelter and services costs, while March's blockbuster nonfarm payrolls of 303,000 jobs and rising wage growth fueled reacceleration fears, tempering hopes for sub-3.3% outcomes. Robust consumer spending and elevated energy prices further support higher brackets like 3.3% (25.4% odds), with traders eyeing today's CPI release for confirmation—any upside surprise could solidify Fed rate cut delays into summer.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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