Polymarket traders assign a leading 48.9% implied probability to March US annual CPI at ≥3.4%, driven by economist consensus forecasts clustering around 3.4% following February's hotter-than-expected 3.2% print and upward revisions amid persistent shelter inflation (up 5.7% YoY). Sticky core CPI at 3.8% and rebounding energy prices from geopolitical tensions further position 3.3% (25.6%) and 3.2% (12.0%) as viable outcomes, tempering aggressive Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the April 10 release. Robust March nonfarm payrolls (303k jobs) underscore economic resilience, with probabilities plunging below 3.0% to reflect trader skepticism on rapid disinflation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≥3,4% 48.9%
3,3% 25.6%
3,2% 12%
3,1% 7.6%
$704,370 Объем
$704,370 Объем
≤2,6%
1%
2,7%
1%
2,8%
1%
2,9%
3%
3,0%
2%
3,1%
8%
3,2%
12%
3,3%
26%
≥3,4%
49%
≥3,4% 48.9%
3,3% 25.6%
3,2% 12%
3,1% 7.6%
$704,370 Объем
$704,370 Объем
≤2,6%
1%
2,7%
1%
2,8%
1%
2,9%
3%
3,0%
2%
3,1%
8%
3,2%
12%
3,3%
26%
≥3,4%
49%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a leading 48.9% implied probability to March US annual CPI at ≥3.4%, driven by economist consensus forecasts clustering around 3.4% following February's hotter-than-expected 3.2% print and upward revisions amid persistent shelter inflation (up 5.7% YoY). Sticky core CPI at 3.8% and rebounding energy prices from geopolitical tensions further position 3.3% (25.6%) and 3.2% (12.0%) as viable outcomes, tempering aggressive Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the April 10 release. Robust March nonfarm payrolls (303k jobs) underscore economic resilience, with probabilities plunging below 3.0% to reflect trader skepticism on rapid disinflation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы